NORWAY: Solid Q3 RNS; Next Week Decision Hinges On Assessment of Inflation

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Banque d France's expects Q2 GDP growth to be confirmed at 0.3% Q/Q following the releaase of the August monhtly business survey. Based on a survey of 8,500 businesses between July 22 - August 5, the survey notes that:

• "Activity continued to grow significantly in July in industry and construction, and more moderately in market services. In August, according to business expectations (which should be interpreted with greater caution this month due to the holidays), activity would remain on the rise in industry and construction and would change little in services. Order books are considered slightly less empty in industry excluding aeronautics, as well as in construction, while remaining relatively low".
• "Our monthly uncertainty indicator, constructed from a textual analysis of comments from the companies surveyed, continues to decline in all three sectors, and more significantly in construction. It remains significantly higher in industry compared to services and construction, which reflects the greater exposure of this sector to international trade, particularly to the United States' tariff policy".
• "Based on information from the Banque de France's monthly business survey, supplemented by other available data (industrial production indices, INSEE surveys, and high-frequency data), we estimate that GDP will grow in the third quarter at a pace close to that observed in the previous quarter. Activity will be driven by the dynamism of value added in the manufacturing industry, as suggested by the monthly business survey. Value added will also increase in market and non-market services, but will decline in construction and energy".

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