EM CEEMEA CREDIT: SOIAZ: sale of gas distribution units to AKSEN

• RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
• RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg     
• RES 1: $2721.4 - High Nov 25     
• PRICE: $2691.4@ 07:26 GMT Dec 11 
• SUP 1: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18 
• SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
• SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
• SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4   

Gold traded again yesterday. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. First support is $2605.3, the Nov 26 low.

Italy is still due to hold a conventional auction and Belgium an ORI auction this week, whilst Austria already held an auction this week. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E10.2bln, down from E16.4bln last week. Both the EU and Slovakia have updated funding plans this week.

• Tomorrow, Italy will hold a 3/7/11/30-year BTP auction. E2.5-3.0bln of the on-the-run 3-year 2.70% Oct-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005622128), E2.5-3.0bln of the on-the-run 7-year 3.15% Nov-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005619546), E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.35% Mar-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005358806) and E0.75-1.00bln of the on-the-run 30-year 4.30% Oct-54 BTP (ISIN: IT0005611741).
  • Alongside this, the MEF confirmed that the end of year-auctions will be cancelled (as we had strongly suspected would be the case): the BTP Short Term and BOT auctions on 30 December and the 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction on 31 December.
• Finally on Friday, Belgium will hold an ORI operation to sell up to E500mln.

NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees a single redemption of E16.0bln of a Schatz. Coupon payments for the week total E1.0bln, of which E0.9bln are German. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E6.8bln, versus negative E27.8bln last week.

For more details on issuance this week and next week see the full document here: EZ241211.pdf

• RES 4: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 3: 162.49 High Nov 22  
• RES 2: 161.73 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 160.07/160.43 High Dec 10 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 159.48 @ 07:15 GMT Dec 11
• SUP 1: 157.56 Low Dec 05
• SUP 2: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023 

A bear cycle in EURJPY remains in play and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has been breached. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme and opens 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 160.43, the 20-day EMA.