US DATA: Softer Housing Contribution Drives Lower Core CPI
Driving the deceleration in September M/M core inflation to 0.23% from 0.35% was housing, which contributed just 0.06pp to core CPI after 0.15pp in August (in turn due to the substantially larger than expected deceleration in OER). See table below for details.
- The other large downward drag vs August came from used cars, which saw a 0.04pp swing vs August (-0.01pp from +0.03pp contribution), helping offset a 0.03pp pickup in other goods' contribution (0.05pp).
- Elsewhere, progress was mixed. Volatile travel-related categories (logding+airfares) saw a sequential deceleration totaling 0.05pp, offsetting a pickup in the contribution of medical services inflation (0.04pp higher).
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LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Heavy Data Tomorrow, Fed Speakers, 7Y Sale
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 09/25 0815 Fed Gov Miran on Bbg TV
- 09/25 0820 Chicago Fed Goolsbee moderated discussion on economy
- 09/25 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (231k, 233k)
- 09/25 0830 Continuing Claims (1.920M, 1.934M)
- 09/25 0830 GDP Price Index (2.0%, 2.0%), Annualized QoQ (3.3%, 3.3%)
- 09/25 0830 Personal Consumption (1.6%, 1.7%)
- 09/25 0830 Core PCE Price Index QoQ (2.5%, 2.5%)
- 09/25 0830 Durable Goods Orders (-2.8%, -0.3%), Ex Trans (1.0%, 0.0%)
- 09/25 0830 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (1.1%, -0.1%), Ship (0.7%, 0.3%)
- 09/25 0830 Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$102.8B rev, -$95.4B)
- 09/25 0830 Advance Goods Imports MoM (7.0% rev, --). Exports MoM (0.0% rev, --)
- 09/25 0830 Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.1%, 0.1%), Retail MoM (0.2%, 0.2%)
- 09/25 0900 NY Fed Williams welcome remarks US$ Conf
- 09/25 0900 KC Fed Schmid economic outlook
- 09/25 1000 Fed Gov Bowman moderated discussion
- 09/25 1000 Existing Home Sales (4.01M, 3.95M), MoM (2.0%, -1.5%)
- 09/25 1100 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (1, 2)
- 09/25 1130 US Tsy $100B 4W & $85B 8W bill auctions
- 09/29 1300 US Tsy $44B 7Y Note auction (91282CNZ0)
- 09/25 1300 Fed Gov Barr on bank stress testing
- 09/25 1340 Dallas Fed Logan moderated panel
- 09/25 1530 SF Fed Daly
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
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CHINA-EU: VdL Talks Trade & Russia w/ Chinese Premier At UNGA
(MNI) London - Following talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York City, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posts on X regarding the "good and frank" meeting, saying the two discussed trade matters, and that "Europe’s concerns regarding export controls, market access, and overcapacity are well known. I appreciate China’s willingness to engage with us in a spirit of mutual understanding."
- VdL: "On Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, I welcomed Premier Li’s statement that both Europe and China share an interest in maintaining world peace. I explained Europe’s commitment to cutting off the revenue streams that fuel Russia’s war. I expressed my request to China to use its influence to help bring an end to the killing and encourage Russia to go to the negotiating table. Time for diplomacy is now. It would send a strong signal to the world."
- The talks are the highest-level discussion between EU and Chinese leaders since the EU-China summit over the summer, which was seen to have achieved little in terms of overcoming divisions on issues of geopolitics, trade and climate change.
