EUROPEAN INFLATION: Soft Spain March Data, Lower on Power, Fuels, Recreation
Spanish March preliminary HICP came in lower than expected on the yearly rate at +2.2% Y/Y (vs +2.5% cons; +2.9% prior) and the sequential reading at 0.7% M/M (0.9% cons; 0.4% prior). The national CPI also came in below expectations at +2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons; 3.0% prior) and 0.1% M/M (vs 0.4% cons; 0.4% prior).
- Core CPI came in below expectations, at +2.0% Y/Y (vs 2.1% cons; 2.2% prior). Core HICP was 2.0% Y/Y, also.
- The headline rate was driven lower by electricity prices, and, to a lesser extent, by auto fuels as well as leisure and culture prices, INE adds.
- Ahead of the release, analysts had already expected lower inflation, pointing to categories including the ones now flagged by INE - the downward momentum appears to have been more pronounced than expected, however.
- Overall, there is little colour in the press release, so for full detail, we will have to await the final data.
- For context, Spain represents 12% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2025.
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GILTS: Opening Calls
Gilt June calls, 93.08/93.09.
- PLEASE not that these could be somewhat distorted with the Roll, but should be close enough, since the spread is just 5 ticks difference between both expiries.
EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls
EU Cash opening Calls, set for a positive but steady open.
Estoxx futures (VGH5) is finding some offers and has faded off the 5500.00 level in early trade.
- Calls: Estox 50: +0.57%, Dax: +0.58%, CAC: +0.40%, FTSE +0.54%, SMI -0.19%.
EURJPY TECHS: Maintains A Bearish Tone
- RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13
- RES 2: 160.09 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 158.61 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 156.93 @ 07:54 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 155.82/155.61 Low Feb 21 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is unchanged and the cross maintains a softer tone. Sights are on key short-term support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish break and set the scene for an extension towards 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low and a key medium-term bear trigger. Initial firm resistance to watch is 158.61, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 160.09, the 50-day EMA.
