US DATA: Soft PPI Details Could See Core PCE Estimates Round To 0.2%
Feb-13 14:02
- Our proxy for core PCE relevant components sees a negative M/M contribution of -0.07pps in January for a large swing from the +0.10pp back in December.
- Recent months for this proxy are little changed after the annual revisions, with that +0.10pp coming as a smaller than first thought boost from airfares saw offset by a larger boost from portfolio management and the array of healthcare services.
- Post-CPI rough analyst consensus was for somewhere in the mid-0.30s for % M/M core PCE in January. The extent to which this will be revised lower of course depends on particular analyst assumptions for the PCE relevant components, but it’s possible these could be closer to rounding to 0.2%.
- Core PCE will be released Feb 28.
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STIR: Effective Fed Funds Rate
Jan-14 14:00
FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $104B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $306B
FRANCE: PM Bayrou Set To Speak At 1400GMT/1500CET
Jan-14 13:58
PM Bayrou’s general policy speech can be viewed at this link.
- French media outlets reported earlier today that Bayrou told parliamentary leaders of the gov't parties that he does not intend to announce a suspension of the 2023 pension reforms, instead favouring renegotiation in order to reach an agreement by September 2025.
- The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) has talked up a suspension of the reforms as its price for supporting the gov't in a post-speech censure vote.
- Should Bayrou's middle-ground approach on pension reform fall short of PS demands then it remains to be seen whether the Bayrou gov't can last.
BUNDS: The German 10yr makes an attempt at the July high
Jan-14 13:55
A quick turnaround for Bund, after initially gaining few Ticks on the US PPI miss, the German 10yr Yield is again eyeing a test to the July high of 2.642%, would need a test towards ~130.47, so far just tested a 130.53 low.
