SCANDIS: Societe Generale Recommend Long NOK/SEK
Jun-05 12:02
Societe Generale recommend going long NOK/SEK, targeting a move to 0.98, with a stop loss set at 0.9350.
- They note that “since NOK/SEK hit a multi-year low at 0.91 in early April, it has been slowly and steadily recovering. We think that this bounce is far from being over, thanks to a more supportive combination of fundamental factors”.
- Societe Generale highlight Norway’s GDP growth forecasts playing catch-up, expectations for USD/NOK to reconnect with lower U.S. yields, Norges Bank now selling foreign currencies and the SEK being “at the mercy” of a dovish Riksbank as the key fundamental factors at play.
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
May-06 12:00
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.33% (-0.03), volume: $2.632T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.31% (-0.02), volume: $1.072T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.31% (-0.02), volume: $1.026T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session
EGB SYNDICATION: Germany 2.90% Aug-56 Bund Tap: Priced
May-06 11:59
- Reoffer: 97.377 to yield 3.029%
- Size: E4.5bln inc E0.5bln retained by issuer (MNI expects E4-6bln)
- Books closed in excess of E47bln (inc E3.595bln JLM interest)
- Spread set earlier: 2.50% Aug-54 Bund + 2.5bp (mid) (guidance was +3.25bp area)
- HR: 109% vs 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (spot ref: 90.252 / 3.004%)
- Settlement: May 13, 2025 (T+5)
- ISIN: DE000BU2D012
- Bookrunners: Barclays, Citi (B&D), CA-CIB, DZ Bank, GS, JPM. Remaining members of the Bund Issues Auction Group will be invited into the co-lead group
- Timing: TOE: 12:48BST / 13:48CET. FTT immediately
From market source
FOREX: JPY Strength Extending Amid Weakness for Equities
May-06 11:49
- Weakness for major equity benchmarks on Tuesday is providing a beneficial backdrop for the Japanese Yen, which extends gains in recent trade. USDJPY slides back below 143.00 and has now eroded the entirety of last Thursday’s BOJ inspired upswing.
- The trend direction in USDJPY remains bearish and gains since Apr 22 are considered corrective. This refocuses short-term attention on initial support at 141.97, the Apr 29 low.
- Divergence between the low yielders is also notable today, as CHFJPY extends intra-day declines to 0.9%. 176.00 has provided an important pivot point this year, and this week’s selloff bolsters the short-term significance of that resistance level.
- Moves have been underpinned by the comments on Swiss Franc strength from SNB President Schlegel this morning, potentially alerting markets to the potential that excessive CHF strength is very much on the SNB’s radar, and the risk reward for further Franc gains may be diminishing at this juncture. Support for CHFJPY is not seen until the 50-day EMA, intersecting at 172.00.
