SWITZERLAND: SNB's Tschudin Says Inflation Below 0% for Short Time Okay

The Dallas Fed's Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey showed a sharp deterioration in conditions in September, falling to -5.6 from 6.8 prior (no consensus). This was a 5-month low and comes after 4 consecutive monthly improvements following a trough of -19.4 in April.

• The revenue index, "a key measure of state service sector conditions" per the Dallas Fed, fell to -2.4 from 8.6 prior, with employment and hours worked falling. The company index fell and the outlook uncertainty index rose. In one of the few positive sign, the 6-month outlook picked up just under a point, to 11.6 - the highest since February.
• Meanwhile the retail sales index fell 15 points to -17.2, with the broader findings mirroring the overall survey (the retail outlook survey is derived from responses solely by firms in the sector).
• Inflation pressures moderated however, with current prices paid falling to a 3-month low 24.4 from 27.9.
• A more startling finding given was a 3rd consecutive fall in current prices received, to 1.6 from 2.7 prior, which is the lowest (ex-pandemic) since early 2016.
• While it is difficult to make clear conclusions from this, given the weak overall conditions including on revenue, as well as a dour set of anecdotes from respondents, it would appear that sellers' pricing power is weak amid poor demand conditions.

RRP usage slips to $49.071B into month end with 28 counterparties this afternoon from $56.220B Monday. Compares to $11.363B on Friday, September 16 - lowest level since early April 2021. The year's high usage stands at $460.731B on June 30.

President Donald Trump has seen his approval rating dip to its second-lowest level of his second term ahead of today's midnight deadline for funding the federal government. 

• Silver Bulletin writes, "This has been a bad week for Trump when it comes to the polls. He began the week with a net approval rating of -7.5 in the Silver Bulletin average. He’s sitting at -9.4 as of today, but his net approval fell all the way to -10.0 (essentially tied for his second term low) earlier in the week. Is this the beginning of a downward trend? Is the suspension of Jimmy Kimmel Live the event that’ll finally result in some real movement in Trump’s approval rating? It’s hard to say for sure..."
• SB notes that while the share of Americans who strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing is also back up to its second term high of 43.4 percent... Trump’s net approval rating on the four issues we track hasn’t moved much at all this week. He’s at -5.3 on immigration, -15.6 on the economy, -17.3 on trade, and -30.0 on the cost of living."
• Separately, a New York Times/Siena College survey found, “American support for Israel has undergone a seismic reversal, with large shares of voters expressing starkly negative views about the Israeli government’s management of the conflict.”

Figure 1: President Donald Trump Net Approval Rating

Source: Silver Bulletin