USD: Small selling interest emerging post US Data
Aug-15 12:50
- After initially gaining a few pips as Treasuries fell lower on the higher Retail Sales revisions, the US Data was closer to expectation and the bounce off the lows in Bond, has put some pressure back into the Greenback.
- Cable just printed a quick new intraday high, and the USDJPY is back at hovering near the earlier low.
- The initial area of interest in USDJPY is not a Tech level but where it was trading pre PPI Yesterday, at
This level is at 146.53.
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US DATA: Core PCE Estimates Could Be Trimmed Following Neutral PPI Readthrough
Jul-16 12:47
- Our crude proxy for key PPI contributions to core PCE sees another broadly neutral month in June, implying a boost of 0.02pp after a slightly upward revised 0.01pp in May (initially -0.01pp).
- For comparison, it follows -0.07pp in Apr, 0.07pp in Mar and 0.19pp in Feb.
- As such, it could leave core PCE estimates drift back a little closer to yesterday’s core CPI of 0.23% M/M vs pre-PPI core PCE estimates averaging 0.31% M/M. Of course that does also depend on what analysts expectations for particular line items.
- Reiterating how it’s not an exact science: whilst this rough proxy implies little boost from PPI details in May, there was still a slight gap between the 0.18% M/M currently seen for core PCE and 0.13% for core CPI.
SOFR OPTIONS: BLOCK/Pit: Dec'25 Call Condor Sale
Jul-16 12:46
total -10,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75/97.00 call condors, 3.75
US TSYS: Post-PPI React
Jul-16 12:35
- Treasury futures inch higher after lower than expected PPI inflation measures
- Currently, Sep'25 10Y contract trades +7.5 at 110-16.5 (110-08.5L / 110-16.5H). Initial technical resistance above at 111-01 (20-day EMA). Support below at 110-08.5 (Low Jul 14)
- Curves remain flatter/off lows: 2s10s -1.189 at 52.551; 5s30s -1.279 at 96.631.
- USD: Modest dip lower for the greenback on the release, most notable from the move from 148.80 to 148.50 for USDJPY eroding a very small portion of yesterday’s advance for now.
