US: Small Business Optimism Rises In July
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, “rose 1.7 points in July to 100.3, slightly above the 52-year average of 98. Contributing most to the rise in the Optimism Index were respondents reporting better business conditions and reporting that it is a good time to expand.”
- The report notes: “In contrast to the Optimism Index, the Uncertainty Index increased by eight points from June to 97. Twenty-one percent of small business owners reported labor quality as their single most important problem, up five points from June and ranking as the top problem.”
- NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “Optimism rose slightly in July with owners reporting more positive expectations on business conditions and expansion opportunities. While uncertainty is still high, the next six months will hopefully offer business owners more clarity, especially as owners see the results of Congress making the 20% Small Business Deduction permanent and the final shape of trade policy. Meanwhile, labor quality has become the top issue on Main Street again.”
Figure 1: Small Business Optimism Index
Source: NFIB
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GBPUSD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 3: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3588 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3459 @ 15:49 BST Jul 14
- SUP 1: 1.3452 Low Jul 14
- SUP 2: 1.3419 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 3: 1.3371 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 1.3335 Low May 20
A softer short-term tone in GBPUSD remains in place and the pair is trading lower once again, today. Price has pierced a key support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3481. A clear break of this level would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that a trendline support - drawn from the Jan 13 low - lies at 1.3419. A break of this support would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3681, the Jul 4 high.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage rises to $217.841B this afternoon from $181.637B Friday, total number of counterparties at 45. Usage had fallen to $54.772B on Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021 - compares to yesterday's (July 1) $460.731B highest usage since December 31.
SOFR OPTIONS: Green Dec/Blue Dec Conditional Curve Steepep
- +10,000 2QZ5 97.00/97.50 call spds vs. 3QZ5 96.75/97.25 call spd, 0.0 net/steepener
