US DATA: Slowing Momentum In Core Durables Orders Points To Softer Investment

• Some aggressive sellers in Treasuries, nothing too big, but through intraday lows.
• While the 30yr futures have been leading lower, the 10ytr part of the curve is catching and EGBs are weighing on US Treasuries.
• That latest leg higher in Yield, helps the USDJPY towards the 146.00 figure, and seeing broader highs for the Dollar here.

An interesting quote from Breman at the BOE conference: "My experience, and this is not in the speech, it is that the general public, regular households, especially when times are uncertain, they want clarity on what's going to happen to mortgage rates, etc, and they almost have too much of trust in the central bank; market participants, not quite as much."

There doesn't seem to be much market moving in Riksbank First Deputy Governor Breman's speech, but it's an interesting assessment of the Riksbank's transparent communication processes.

• Re-iterating that the rate path is a forecast not a promise: "It is therefore crucial that it is made clear that the policy rate path is indeed a forecast − and that the transparency applies to the forecast, not the policy going forward. The latter is simply very difficult to be transparent about far in advance. The fact that the interest rate forecast is a “forecast and not a promise” has been something of a mantra in the Riksbank’s communication over the years. "
• "As the economy is constantly hit by various shocks, the policy rate path that is expected to produce this inflation trend will need to be changed more or less constantly. The fact that interest rate forecasts are not seldom wrong is therefore “a feature, not a bug”.
• "My assessment is that it will become increasingly common for scenarios to play a role in monetary policy communication. This is, of course, particularly true if the global macroeconomic environment continues to be characterised by large and frequent shocks. Scenarios become a natural way for the central bank to analyse and communicate different risks. And, as is the case with most other communication tools, the more central banks use them, the more economic agents will become accustomed to and familiar with alternative scenario"
• "I can only account for the Riksbank’s experiences during the almost eighteen years that we have included names in the minutes. In my view, this has increased the transparency of the judgements made by different members of the Executive Board on different issues, and this in turn has made it easier for households, firms and market participants to understand both the policies we are pursuing and how they might change"