NATGAS: Slovakia Gas Set to Cost More After Ukraine Transit End
Slovakia is not facing a gas shortage risk once Ukraine transit ends but there will be a financial impact of 177 million euros more in fees for alternative routes, the Slovak Economy Ministry said on Tuesday.
- Ahead of the expiry of a transit deal between Ukraine and Russia that will end flows to Slovakia, the country had sufficient gas storage and alternative supplies for 2025 it added.
- Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico has made a significant push in recent weeks to try and keep Ukraine transit into next year but drew condemnation from global officials including Ukraine’s Zelenskyy after his recent meeting with Putin. Without the support of Ukraine, the transit deal faces few options to be resolved.
- The Czech Republic said on Monday they would support Slovakia with transit and storage and that the end of the German gas transit fee on Jan.1 would help to ease pricing.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Mode
- RES 3: 96.380 - High Mar 21 2023
- RES 2: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 1: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- PRICE: 96.090 @ 15:41 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 95.760 - Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 95.750 - Low 27 Nov ‘23
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Having hit a fresh pullback low at 95.760 across the global rates sell-off in recent weeks, the market found bottom and has staged a shallow bounce above the 96.00 handle. Nonetheless, recent weakness confirms the downside bias, with support undercutting at 95.750 below ahead of major support of 95.480. For any corrective recovery to take hold, markets need to retake the 96.00 handle on a closing basis.
USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4287 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4078/4178 High Nov 27 / 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4005 @ 16:09 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 1.3965/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3858 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle reinforced this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, the latest pullback appears corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6604/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6534/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6512 @ 16:03 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 0.6434 Low Nov 26
- SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. The pair has recovered from its recent lows - a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6534, the 20-day EMA.
