JGBS: Slightly Mixed, 30YY Flat, Subdued Session

The USD sits well off earlier highs, the BBDXY index back slightly under 1223, against earlier highs just above 1229. We are still a touch above end Tuesday levels for the index in NY. This still suggests a bearish mindset is in play for the USD. Early USD gains were driven by Trump comments around having no intention to fire Fed Chair Powell, while also noting end tariff levels for China would be below the current 145%. 

• Safe havens like JPY and CHF saw the biggest moves against the USD, but have retraced a large portion of these moves. USD/JPY got to 143.22, but no sits back at 141.90, session lows were at 141.49. USD/CHF got to 0.8287, but is now back at 0.8220/25. EUR/USD is near 1.1400, versus earlier lows of 1.1308.
• In the cross asset space, the US equity futures bounce, following the earlier Trump comments, is largely holding but we are away from best levels, Eminis last +1.3%. Regional equities are mostly higher, with tech and Hong Kong markets outperforming. China markets are lagging somewhat.
• US yields are lower, led by the back end of the curve, 10yr back to 4.34%.
• AUD and NZD have seen less volatility. AUD/USD couldn't sustain earlier gains above 0.6400 (but is still +0.40% firmer), while NZD/USD is little changed, last near 0.5970/75.
• Outside of some Japan data (tertiary industry index) the data calendar is empty for the remainder of today's Asia Pac session. 

Australia holds its federal election on May 3 and as the date approaches the incumbent Labor Party (ALP) has increased its share of both the primary and 2-party preferred vote across opinion polls. If the actual result comes in close to the surveys, which are currently around the 2022 outcome, then Labor could hold its small majority in the House of Representatives but trends are unlikely to be uniform across seats and the risk of a minority government remains high.

Australia average of opinion polls - 2-party preferred %

Source: MNI - Market News/Wikipedia

• The ALP had been behind the opposition LNP in the important 2-party preferred measure (Australia has a preferential voting system) from September last year but turned that around once the election campaign officially began.
• Polls in April are showing that the ALP could achieve a primary vote of around its May 2022 33% result with a 2-party preferred possibly around 2022’s 52.1%. It is difficult to ascertain if that will allow it to keep its 2 seat majority of 77 as outcomes in individual seats will be particularly important given the high number of incumbent and candidate independents as well as local issues.
• The average of recent surveys is showing that in terms of percentages the 2025 election could be very similar to 2022 with the average of the last 3 polls (Freshwater, Newspoll, Roy Morgan) showing the centre-left ALP with 34% (+1pp), centre-right LNP 36% (unchanged), Greens (+1pp), independents 13% (+3pp) and right-wing One Nation 7% (+2pp). The 2-party preferred is in line with 2022 at 52:48 to the ALP.
• The most recent Freshwater poll taken over April 14-16 showed a seat projection of ALP 68 (-9), LNP 69 (+16), Greens 1 (-3) and other 12 (-3), which is signalling a minority government but unclear of which persuasion. This poll reinforces the importance of the outcomes in individual seats. 

Australia average of opinion polls - primary vote %

China’s online retail sales exceeded CNY3.6 trillion in Q1, of which online goods sales accounted for nearly CNY3 trillion, an increase of 5.7%, People’s Daily reported citing data from the Ministry of Commerce. The government and enterprises are working together to help exporters redirect their good sales to the domestic market, with more than 10 e-commerce platforms directly purchasing from exporters or setting up special promotion areas for them, the newspaper said.