STIR: Slightly Less Dovish, More Post-FOMC (and NFP) Fedspeak Later

• RES 4: 113-07   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg 
• RES 3: 112-23   High May 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 112-12+/15 High Jul 1 / 61.8% of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
• RES 1: 111-28   High Jul 3  
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-06+ @ 11:12 BST Jul 07
• SUP 1: 110-31   50-day EMA        
• SUP 2: 110-16   Low Jun 20
• SUP 3: 110-10+ Low Jun 16 
• SUP 4: 110-03 76.4% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg 

A bull cycle in Treasury futures is intact and - for now - the latest pullback appears  corrective. The contract remains above a key support at 110-31, the 50-day EMA, and the Jul 3 low. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper correction and highlight a possible reversal. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 112-15, the 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 steep sell-off. Initial resistance is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.

RXU5 127.5/125.5ps, sold at 15 in 1.5k.

Reuters reports comments from a German gov't spox stating that Chancellor Friedrich Merz is coordinating with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, and French President Emmanuel Macron with regard to the situation vis-a-vis US tariffs. Adds that "time is money when it comes to tariff negotiations." Germany and France remain on different tracks in terms of response to US tariffs, with Berlin seeking a swift deal even if it is not perfect, while France has sought to avoid perceptions of EU 'weakness' at the risk of no agreement being reached. 

• There has been significant uncertainty over the weekend as to the date of when 'reciprocal' tariff rates might kick back in. The initial date of 9 July supposedly remains, but both President Trump and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent have said that 1 August will be the point at which the higher rates "boomerang back", (although denying this is a new deadline).
• In any case, there is little-to-no expectation of a deep trade deal being announced between the two sides, with a thin skeleton deal that includes the 10% baseline US tariff, seen as the best outcome in terms of avoiding friction in the short term.
• Bloomberg report comments from Portuguese Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, who said ahead of the EU economic affairs minsiters' meeting on 8 July, that “It’s possible to have an agreement with very low tariffs,” but added “If the terms of the deal are not favorable for the EU then there is no agreement,”