OIL: Slight Oil Recovery Following Further Trump Tariff Threats
Feb-07 17:28
Further flurry of Trump headlines giving slight recovery to oil after earlier Reuters headlines caused sell off potentially suggesting more imminent reciprocal tariffs.
- Again, markets trying to price in risks against fairly vague comments. U.S. dollar finding more support.
- Trump threatens reciprocal tariffs on “many” countries “next week” in latest headers
- "TRUMP: WILL ANNOUNCE RECIPROCAL TARIFFS NEXT WEEK ON MANY COUNTRIES" – rtrs
- "*TRUMP SAYS TARIFFS ON JAPAN ARE AN OPTION" – bbg
- "*TRUMP SAYS HE WILL MAKE ANNOUNCEMENT NEXT WK ON RECIPROAL TRADE" - bbg
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EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Spain 2025 Funding Plan
Jan-08 17:22
- Spain has published its 2025 funding plans over the past 24 hours.
- The gross issuance target for MT/LT debt is E176.514bln (which is slightly above the highest estimates that we had seen which ranged from E140-170bln).
- Redemptions of MT/LT debt in 2025 total E121.514ln, a little above 2024’s E118.118bln.
- This leave net MT/LT issuance at E55bln (the top of expectations which ranged from E25-55bln).
- Gross issuance in 2024 was E169.898 (net issuance E51.780bln). The 2024 target was E173.118bln (net issuance E55bln).
- So relative to 2024, gross issuance is expected to be E6.616bln higher (expectations were broadly E3-33bln lower) with net issuance expected to be similar to 2024.
- The stock letras is forecast to increase E5.0bln (it had been expected to remain steady in 2025).
- Spain also expects to receive E16.0bln from the NGEU Recovery Plan.
- Spain plans to keep tapping the 1.00% Jul-42 Green Obli that was launched in September 2021 until it reaches benchmark size comparable to other Oblis. There is no specific green funding target.
- Tesoro Publico notes that the increase in net issuance to E60bln (MT/LT + letras) is "to preserve the flexibility needed to respond to the extraordinary needs arising from the DANA (extraordinary floods that affected mainly the region of Valencia at the end of October 2024), in line with the commitment to provide all necessary support to ensure a rapid reconstruction and relaunch of the affected area’s economy."
- Bond auctions continue to be generally held on the first and third Thursday of each month, with one linker in the first auction of the month.
- There are also no changes to the letras auction schedule with two monthly auctions: 6/12-month in the first and 3/9-months in the second.
LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Shortened Session
Jan-08 17:19
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 9-Jan 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (26.8%, --)
- 9-Jan 0900 Philly Fed Harker eco-outlook (text, Q&A)
- 9-Jan 0905 Bostin Fed Collins eco-outlook (text, Q&A)
- 9-Jan 0930 CME and CBOT U.S.-based equity products close
- 9-Jan 1130 US Tsy $95B 4W & $90B 8W bill auctions
- 9-Jan 1245 Richmond Fed Barkin bank assn (text, Q&A)
- 9-Jan 1300 CME Group FI close (Globex at 1315ET)
- 9-Jan 1330 KC Fed Schmid eco-outlook (text)
- 9-Jan 1335 Fed Gov Bowman eco-outlook (text, Q&A)
US TSYS: CME Rates Trading Schedule for January 9 Day of Mourning
Jan-08 17:15
- President Biden declared January 9, 2025, as a National Day of Mourning in observance of the passing of former President James Earl Carter, Jr. CME Group has coordinated market openings and closings with regard to the declared National Day of Mourning for President James Earl Carter, Jr.
- INTEREST RATES: Open outcry and CME Globex trading session for interest rate products will have an early
close of 1300 ET and 1315ET, respectively on January 9, 2025. All transactions submitted on CME ClearPort will have normal hours. Settlement prices will be derived at 1300ET.
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