MIDEAST: SKAI-Three Killed In Houthi Attack On Eternity C Vessel
Greece's SKAI reports that three crew members have been killed and two more injured aboard the Liberian-flagged, Greek-operated Eternity C vessel off the west coast of the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. These are the first deaths among seafarers on commercial vessels inflicted by Houthi attacks since June 2024. SKAI: "According to reports, the ship was attacked with four RPG rockets and two drones, causing it to stall in the area." As noted earlier (see "MIDEAST: Houthis Ramp Up Attacks On Red Sea Shipping Amid Gaza Ceasefire Efforts", 09:50BST), the Houthis' decision to launch significant new attacks on Red Sea shipping comes amid US, Egyptian and Qatari efforts to push a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
- As the NYT reported in June, much commercial shipping still avoids the Red Sea area, presciently noting, "Shipping executives said they also feared a severe disruption to their networks if they returned to the Red Sea but suddenly had to pull out of the region because attacks resumed." Lloyds List also told NYT that "Ship traffic through the Red Sea is down by around three-fifths since 2023 when the Houthis started targeting ships there in solidarity with Hamas in its war with Israel in Gaza, "
- Even with fewer ships present, the attacks in recent days could end the US-Houthi ceasefire in place since May. At the time, US President Donald Trump said, “They say they will not be blowing up ships anymore.”
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies Off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.19 @ 15:53 GMT Jun 06
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: June 2025
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- May’s refunding round saw guidance as well as coupon sizes for the current quarter unchanged.
- The August round (Jul 28-30) could prove more compelling, reflecting both pressure at the long end of the Treasury curve as well as a shifting fiscal outlook amid tariff revenues contrasted with impending tax cuts (not to mention the likelihood of approaching the debt limit at around that time if it’s not lifted).
- Future Coupon Upsizing: We’ve seen some expectations that Treasury could lean against some of those trends in the August refunding, with potential signals if not immediate action on adjusting buybacks or even reducing issuance duration in order to reduce pressure on the long end. MNI’s current expectation is that coupon sizes will only be increased in early 2026. We will update in our next Deep Dive at end-June, with our full refunding preview coming in late July.
- Upcoming issuance: June is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $23B in 10Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $366B. Sales for the month start in the coming week, on Tuesday June 10 with $58B of 3Y Note, Wednesday June 11 with $39B of 10Y Note, and Thursday June 12 with $22B of 30Y Bond.
- May Auction Results: Against a backdrop of continued steepening pressure for global sovereign curves, May’s coupon auctions saw strong sales at the short-end/belly contrasted with tails at the long-end.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Treasury Measures Tick Up As Cash Depletes
Treasury had $84B in "extraordinary measures" available to keep the government financed as of June 4 per a release Friday. That is up from $68B a week earlier though Treasury has exhausted three-quarters of the total initially available ($362B) when the debt limit impasse began in January.
- Combined with a pullback in Treasury cash ($376B), the total resources available to avert an "x-date" in the summer are down to a total $460B, the lowest since April 10 before the annual tax take accelerated.
- There will be another uptick in Treasury cash late next week/early the following week around the mid-June tax date, but this is likely to be the last major uplift before the summer at which point x-date speculation will pick up if Congress hasn't passed a debt limit increase by then.
