FOREX: Single Currency Edging Lower, FOMC Minutes Awaited
Jan-08 11:13
- EURUSD presses to fresh session lows in recent trade ~1.0310 amid the general firmer price action for the greenback Wednesday. The pair has been slowly eroding the rally from earlier in the week, that had been underpinned by higher-than-expected German inflation and hints that US tariffs could be more selective than first thought.
- With the underlying bullish dollar trend prevailing, EURUSD is now ~120 pips off the week’s highs and notably back below the prior breakdown point of 1.0335. Recent gains appear technically corrective and the Jan 2 sharp sell-off reinforces a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.0226, the Jan 2 low.
- ING note that the strong US macro story is fighting technical short-term bullish factors for EURUSD but believe the pair may find decent support at 1.0300 for now.
- Fed minutes and US employment represent the key risks for the pair; however, we will also receive German and French IP data along with Eurozone retail sales this week. ECB’s Villeroy will speak later today in Paris at 1815CET.
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US TSY FUTURES: Asset Managers Add to Net Long, Hedge Funds Trim Net Short
Dec-09 11:08
The latest CFTC CoT report revealed that asset managers added to their overall net long position in DV01 equivalent terms, as net long setting in UXY and US futures outweighed long cover in all other contracts. The cohort remains net long across all contracts.
- Meanwhile rounds of hedge fund short setting (UXY & US) were outweighed by short cover elsewhere (in DV01 equivalent terms). The cohort remains net short across all contracts.
- Overall non-commercial positioning remains net short across all contracts.
- CFTC CoT positioning metrics will be skewed by the presence of basis trades.
Source: MNI - Market News/CFTC/Bloomberg
US: SOFR FIX - 09/12/24
Dec-09 11:02
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.45195 -0.02535
- 3M 4.39622 -0.0305
- 6M 4.28907 -0.04035
- 12M 4.12895 -0.05184
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX 50 Futures Bull Cycle Still In Play
Dec-09 10:56
- The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and price is trading at its latest highs. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 6145.26, a 1.236 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 6009.42, the 20-day EMA.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The move higher undermines a recent bearish theme. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4873.27. The clear breach of this average strengthens a bullish theme and note that 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, has also been pierced. This opens 5015.00, the Oct 29 high. Key support is 4699.00, the Nov 19 low. Initial support lies at 4844.40, the 20-day EMA.
