OIL: Singapore Fuel Inventories Rose 855kbbl in the Week to June 25

The German chamber of industry and commerce (DIHK) remains rather pessimistic in their spring economic survey. "None of our indicators are positive. The economic upturn that we all want and that our country needs is not yet in sight" - overall, they see -0.3% GDP growth in Germany in 2025. 

• That is weaker than the government's forecast (0.0%), the joint economic forecast of a set of research institutes (-0.1%), and MNI's collation of sellside analysts (0.0%). The German economy grew 0.2% Q/Q in Q1, so some negative growth in the coming quarters would be implied in the DIHK view.
• The survey took place between the end of March and the end of April, capturing particularly elevated uncertainty stemming from US trade policies. However, whilst there has been some thawing in this uncertainty, levels are still high (as the below chart of the Bloomberg trade uncertainty index suggests) and 50% EU tariff threats could be highly damaging per Ifo scenarios noted earlier.
• The DIHK is an interest group for the commercial sector in Germany.

WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high last Wednesday before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.71, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The price pattern on May 21 is a shooting star - a reversal signal. Gold has recovered from its recent lows. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and remain bullish. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.

• WTI Crude up $0.1 or +0.16% at $61.64
• Natural Gas down $0.07 or -2.1% at $3.264
• Gold spot down $43.41 or -1.3% at $3300.13
• Copper down $7.95 or -1.64% at $475.65
• Silver down $0.48 or -1.42% at $33.0085
• Platinum down $11.51 or -1.06% at $1079.6

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and recent gains maintain the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Key support to watch lies at 5230.62, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a possible reversal. A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last Friday’s sell-off resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA, at 5779.53. A key support lies at 5719.58, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the bull trigger at 5993.50, the May 20 high.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 192.58 pts or +0.51% at 37724.11 and the TOPIX ended 17.58 pts higher or +0.64% at 2769.49.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 6.152 pts or -0.18% at 3340.687 and the HANG SENG ended 99.66 pts higher or +0.43% at 23381.99.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 124.65 pts or +0.52% at 24149.55, FTSE 100 higher by 79.72 pts or +0.91% at 8797.59, CAC 40 up 14.36 pts or +0.18% at 7841.82 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 19.65 pts or +0.36% at 5414.45.
• Dow Jones mini up 539 pts or +1.29% at 42210, S&P 500 mini up 87 pts or +1.5% at 5903.5, NASDAQ mini up 352.25 pts or +1.68% at 21325.75.