PRECIOUS METALS: Silver - Makes New Highs In Asia, Just Shy Of $70
The range overnight for XAG was $68.13 - $69.25, Asia is currently trading around {XAG Curncy}. Silver continues to accelerate higher printing just shy of $70 this morning in Asia. The surge in demand for “real assets” and the news that both Copper and Silver have been added to the US “Critical Minerals” list has contributed to it being better bid. China stockpiles have slumped which added tailwinds to the trade as it looks to accelerate higher, we are in rarified air now so it's tough to put targets on this but when an asset moves like this you want to be trading with the trend. Price is now going parabolic though and that is normally the time to start being prudent as price is beginning to outstretch what is rational. The issue is it is impossible to say when the price will stall when it goes on a run like this, but history tells us the reversion can be just as brutal so caution is warranted.
- The XAG Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: $2.50
- Tavi Costa who has been early to the silver trade disagrees with prudence, he writes on X: “Another remarkable move in silver. Some may argue it’s overextended, but I see it very differently. Silver is finally responding to long-ignored structural pressures that are now coming into focus. In a highly indebted world where financial repression is becoming inevitable, calling a top in a supply-constrained monetary metal strikes me as a dangerous assumption.”
- The Market Ear on X: “Is "under the hood" options pricing telling us silver has gone ahead of itself? Call put skew has come down notably since the "panic upside grab".” See Graph Below.
Fig 1 : Silver Spot Vs Call/Put Skew
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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RATINGS: Moody's Upgrades Italy To Baa2 From Baa3, Still A Notch Below Others
The Moody's upgrade to Italy's credit rating announced late Friday was the first from the agency since 2002 but shouldn't be considered a major surprise. Among the 3 major ratings agencies, Moody's had the lowest rating on Italy - by two notches (Fitch and S&P both BBB+).
- So this upgrade to Baa2 from Baa3 represents something of a closing of that gap rather than a major breakthrough for Italy.
- From the release:
- "The rating upgrade reflects a consistent track-record of political and policy stability which enhances the effectiveness of economic and fiscal reforms and investment implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). It also points to prospects of further policy actions supporting growth and fiscal consolidation beyond the plan's deadline in August 2026. As a result, we expect that Italy's high government debt burden will gradually decline from 2027 onwards."
FED: Heading Into Its Final Weeks, QT Pace Remains At $20B/Month (2/2)
On the asset side of the Fed balance sheet, we saw a $25B drop in assets, of which just $2B could be attributed to QT in one of its final weeks (ends Dec 1).
- Instead it was a $6B drop in dealer repo operations vs a week earlier, and $17B in "other" areas that aren't related directly to monetary policy and typically don't have any significant impact on the size of the balance sheet (such changes are largely due to items such as bank premises, accrued interest, and other accounts receivable.)
- Discount window takeup edged up $0.3B to $6.1B but remains relatively low.
- QT has totaled just under $21B over the last month, around the expected pace, though as noted this will flatline in December with a pickup in net bills as MBS proceeds are rolled over into T-bills.
LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead: Retail Sales, PPI & Claims Headline Thanksgiving Week
A Thanksgiving-condensed week sees data highlights from delayed retail sales and PPI reports for September on Tuesday (Nov 25) before a Wednesday release for weekly jobless claims (Nov 26). Aside, the Fed’s Beige Book should also offer another important update on Wednesday for latest liaison reporting, with no Fedspeak currently scheduled around the holiday and the FOMC media blackout due to start on Saturday, Nov 29.
- As we regularly comment in this weekly publication, Redbook and Chicago Fed CARTS indicators point to solid nominal growth in retail sales, something broadly reflected in analyst consensus for the release.
- PPI inflation will offer a useful albeit not overly timely update on input cost pressures.
- Jobless claims will be watched particularly closely, both for latest initial claims for signs of layoffs and a notable update for continuing claims. The latter covers the payrolls reference period for November and will be an important reference point for FOMC members trying to get a sense of latest unemployment rate clues with the next payrolls reports coming after the Dec 9-10 FOMC decision (going into it with this week’s 0.12bp rise to 4.44% back in September).
