PRECIOUS METALS: Silver - looking To Challenge $55 And Then Beyond

Nov-28 00:36

The range overnight for XAG was $52.90 - $53.91, Asia is currently trading around $53.51, +0.25%%. Silver has regained its momentum higher after finding good demand back below the $50 area. The surge in risk sentiment, a weaker USD and the news that both Copper and Silver have been added to the US “Critical Minerals” list has contributed to it being better bid. China stockpiles have slumped which adds tailwinds to the trade as it looks to test the $55 level again, a break of which could see the momentum higher reignited. 

  • The XAG Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: $1.44
  • Bloomberg is reporting: “The Global silver market faces a fresh risk after Chinese stockpiles sank to the lowest in a decade, with a huge volume recently shipped to London to ease a squeeze that drove prices to a record.”  {NSN T6BFBRKIUPS1 <GO>}
  • Otavio Costa who has been early to the silver trade is looking for the move to begin a new bigger leg higher, he writes on X: “Silver on the move again. This time we’re looking at a historic breakout from a 50-plus–year cup-and-handle formation — one that can proceed with an explosive move beyond previous highs. Game on.” See Graph Below

Fig 1 : Silver Quarterly Chart

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Source: MNI - Market News/Crescat Capital/@TaviCosta

Historical bullets

AUSTRALIA DATA: Q3 Core Inflation Higher Than Expected, Likely RBA Nov Hold

Oct-29 00:36

The Q3 trimmed mean was higher than expected rising 1.0% q/q to be up 3.0% y/y up from 0.7% q/q (revised +0.1pp) & 2.7% y/y. On the surface, this looks high enough to keep the RBA on hold on 4 November as it waits for more data, especially as the 2q/2q annualised rate printed at 3.4%. The September monthly outcome picked up 0.2pp to 2.8% y/y. Headline CPI rose 1.3% & 3.2% up from 0.7% & 2.1% in Q2 but remains distorted by government electricity rebates.

MNI: AUSTRALIA MONTHLY SEP CPI 0.3% MM, 3.5% YY

Oct-29 00:30
  • MNI: AUSTRALIA MONTHLY SEP CPI 0.3% MM, 3.5% YY

MNI:AUSTRALIA Q3 CPI +1.2% Q/Q

Oct-29 00:30
  • MNI:AUSTRALIA Q3 CPI +1.2% Q/Q
  • MNI:AUSTRALIA Q3 TRIMMED CPI +1% Q/Q