PRECIOUS METALS: Silver - Going Parabolic, Surges Above $61.00
The range overnight for XAG was $57.91 - $58.53, Asia is currently trading around $61.25, +0.90%%. Silver has accelerated higher again after breaking above $59 in the New York session, the move has followed though into our session as Silver surges above to a high around $61.50 as silver begins to go parabolic. The surge in demand for “real assets” and the news that both Copper and Silver have been added to the US “Critical Minerals” list has contributed to it being better bid. China stockpiles have slumped which added tailwinds to the trade as it looks to accelerate higher, we are in rarified air now so it's tough to put targets on this but when an asset moves like this you want to be trading with the trend. On the day first support is now seen back toward the $58-$59 area.
- The XAG Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: $1.71
- Tavi Costa who has been early to the silver trade thinks the move is just beginning, he writes on X: “The gold-to-silver ratio is starting to move abruptly, as it often does after reaching extremely elevated levels. As always, investors convinced themselves that this time was different and that we wouldn’t revert back to the historical average.”
- “It’s ironic how these extremes appear obvious in hindsight, yet in real time they’re often rationalized as anomalies. My view is that the gold-to-silver ratio is set to decline substantially, and this is likely only the early stage of that move.” See Graph Below.
Fig 1 : Gold-to-Silver Ratio
Source: MNI - Market News/@TaviCosta
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
CRYPTO: Bitcoin - Bounces Off 100k Support As Risk Gaps Higher
Bitcoin had a range over the weekend of $100 414.8k - $104 048.8k, Asia is currently trading around $105 640k, +1.10%. Bitcoin held its support around the 100k area and has moved higher this morning with risk as the market prices in the potential end of the US shutdown. The Bitcoin support area between $95k-$107k provided those wanting to express a long a good opportunity to fade if that was your way. A break below $90k-$95k is needed to potentially signal a deeper correction is underway, this scenario would make a few of those treasury companies holding bitcoin on their balance sheet nervous, there are reports that some of these have already started paring back positioning. After such a huge drawdown I suspect any rallies toward the $110-115k area should now find sellers initially.
- Bloomberg reports Strategy raises $715m to purchase more bitcoin via preferred stock. The “Treasury Company” continues to add to its bitcoin reserves, surpassing Nvidia and placing it among the top 10 US corporate treasuries. They currently hold 641,205 Bitcoin acquired for $47.49 Billion at an average of $74, 047."
- Bitcoin also got a boost as Bloomberg reports, James Chanos the famed short-seller has closed out his short position in Strategy(formerly Microstrategy). A Post on X stated: “The decision marks the end of an 11-month bet that Strategy’s stock was overvalued relative to the Bitcoin it holds on its balance sheet.”
Fig 1: Bitcoin spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper With US Tsys After On Ending US Shutdown
ACGBs (YM -3.5 & XM -3.0) are weaker with US tsys.
- Cash US tsys are ~3bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after headlines have crossed that key US Senate Democrats will advance a GOP bill to end the government shutdown. This follows earlier headlines from US Republican Senate leader Thune that a deal was coming together. Risk appetite is firmer, albeit away from best levels.
- Cash ACGBs are 3-4bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +26bps.
- The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -2 to -5.
- Deputy Governor Hauser answered questions at the UBS Australasia Conference and noted that, given capacity pressures and policy stance are difficult to measure, the outlook is unclear, and the Board is monitoring the incoming data closely. The main takeaway was that the economy could already be close to trend growth, and therefore, supply constraints make further rate cuts difficult. If growth rises further without strengthening the supply side, then the pickup in inflation seen in Q3 may be persistent.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is showing a 25bp rate cut in December at a 10% probability, with a cumulative 17bps of easing priced by mid-2026.
CHINA PRESS: Major Housing Developers Manage To Cut Debt
Major property developers have reduced their debt significantly through innovative methods such as debt-to-equity swaps and asset-for-debt swaps, bringing the industry's risk clearing into a new stage, wrote Securities Daily in a commentary, after Sunac China and Country Garden announced reductions of their overseas debt by approximately USD9.6 billion and USD11.7 billion. So far, 21 real-estate companies facing difficulties have had their debt restructuring or reorganisation approved or completed, with a total debt reduction scale of about CNY1.2 trillion, data by China Index Academy showed.
