TURKEY: Significant Jump in Monthly Inflation Threatens CBRT Easing Plans

A negative open for gilts despite the recovery from worst levels in Bunds, as weakness in T-notes weighs.

• Futures break yesterday’s low (89.60). Fibonacci support is nearby (89.46), with bears remaining in technical control.
• Yields 2-3bp higher across the curve, steepening theme intact.
• 10s closed at 4.80% yesterday, seeing the first print above that level since late March. January highs (4.921%) present the next upside target there.
• 30s trade through yesterday’s fresh multi-decade high.
• That comes as ongoing fiscal worry, some questions surrounding the future of Chancellor Reeves and the potential Budget date (26 November touted) dominate locally.
• Final UK services PMI data is due today.
• Elsewhere, BoE’s Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor & Greene will appear in front of the Treasury Select Committee. We will provide a little more on that in due course.
• Note that BoE’s Breeden will speak this morning, although the setting of the address (a “money & payments” conference) may limit scope for comments on monetary policy.

• Holding On To Its Latest GainsRES 4: $40.323 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $42.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 1: $40.977 - Intraday high      
• PRICE: $40.817 @ 08:16 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: $38.804 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $37.787 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support   
• SUP 4: $35.285 - Low Jun 24

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the metal has traded sharply higher this week. Resistance at $35.930, the Jul 23 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on $41.064 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is $38.804, the 20-day EMA.

• MNI: SPAIN AUG SERV PMI 53.2 (54.5 FCAST, 55.1 JUL)