SILVER TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
* RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing * RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of t...
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STIR: Risks To Euribor Implied Terminal Rate Balanced Ahead Of ECB Decision
Risks to the Euribor-implied terminal rate have become more balanced ahead of tomorrow’s ECB decision and Q3 flash GDP/October inflation data. The stronger-than-expected October flash PMIs allowed for an unwind of early-October dovish repricing, and President Lagarde is likely to strike a broadly neutral tone at tomorrow’s press conference to maintain optionality.
- MNI’s full ECB preview is here
- The current terminal rate is 1.94%, indicated by the U6 contract. Across the strip, futures are little changed versus yesterday’s settlement levels. There was no impact from Spanish Q3 flash GDP, which was in line with expectations at 0.6% Q/Q (vs 0.8% prior).
- ECB-dated OIS price just 2bps of easing through year-end, with just over a 50% implied probability of another cut this cycle.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Oct-25 | 1.929 | -0.1 |
| Dec-25 | 1.912 | -1.8 |
| Feb-26 | 1.897 | -3.3 |
| Mar-26 | 1.852 | -7.8 |
| Apr-26 | 1.843 | -8.7 |
| Jun-26 | 1.811 | -11.9 |
| Jul-26 | 1.808 | -12.2 |
| Sep-26 | 1.798 | -13.2 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
EGBS: Bunds Steady Through the Open; Focus on Supply & Fed
- Bunds traded steady headed through the going into the Cash Open as markets await the main event of the week,w with the FOMC meeting today.
- Initial support of 129.13 and the resistance at 130.07 have been untested this week, meaning these levels hold into the Fed decision at 1800GMT.
- In Europe, Spanish prelim GDP is the only notable data release, and came in very modestly softer against expectations (2.8% Y/Y vs. Exp. 2.9%).
- As per the MNI Fed Preview: The Fed is overwhelmingly expected to cut the funds rate by 25bp for a 2nd consecutive meeting today. This will again be framed as a risk management cut, with the limited data available since the September meeting not disconfirming that the shift in the balance of risks had tilted toward labour market downside. Dissent to this decision should once again be limited to Gov Miran in favour of a 50bp cut.
- SUPPLY: UK sells £3.75bn of 2033 Gilts (equates to 26.1k Gilt) which could weigh into the bidding deadline. Germany sells €4.5bn 10yr Bund (equates to 38.1k Bund), which should weigh on the contract. US sells $30bn of 2yr FRN, which shouldn't impact Treasuries.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Powell's presser. The ECB remain inside their pre-meeting media blackout period.
AUDUSD TECHS: Recovery Accelerates
- RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.6660 High Sep 18
- RES 2: 0.6644/46 76.4% of the Sep-Oct bear leg / 2.0% 10-dma Env.
- RES 1: 0.6618 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6608 @ 08:07 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 0.6543 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6493 Low Oct 24
- SUP 3: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
- SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a key key support
A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and this week’s rally reinforces current conditions. The break higher also marks an acceleration of the short-term upleg and sights are on 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6543, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a clear break of the EMA would undermine the current bull cycle.
