EURGBP TECHS: Sights Are On Key Resistance

• Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari (’26 voter) saw he sees the breakeven hiring rate about 75k a month.
• The estimate fits nicely within the range of estimates we go into in our NFP preview published a little earlier today (https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Sep2025_Preview_8025c04073.pdf)
• He also adds that he’s skeptical that AI is showing up in economic data. 

• As noted in the preview, there continues to be focus on the potential “breakeven” rate of payrolls growth, that is the pace at which the unemployment rate would be kept steady when allowing for differences between the establishment and household surveys.
• With significant moderation in labor force growth having broadly come along with reduced labor demand, there appears to be a rough range of estimates that this breakeven rate could be between 50-100k.
• Of the FOMC members, the estimates tend to be capped at either end by those from the hawkish and dovish end of the spectrum. St Louis Fed’s Musalem, a ’25 FOMC voter and clear hawk, thinks it’s reasonable to expect the breakeven rate could be below 50k whereas Fed Governor Waller, a firm dove seen as leading contender for next Fed Chair, viewed it a few months ago as being in the 80-100k region.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 09/04 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (16.41M, 16.10M)
• 09/04 0815 ADP Employment Change (104k, 70k)
• 09/04 0830 Nonfarm Productivity (2.4%, 2.7%)
• 09/04 0830 Unit Labor Costs (1.6%, 1.2%)
• 09/04 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (229k, 230k)
• 09/04 0830 Continuing Claims (1.954M, 1.960M)
• 09/04 0830 Trade Balance (-$60.2B, -$77.9N)
• 09/04 0830 Exports MoM (-0.5%, --), Imports (-3.7%, --)
• 09/04 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (55.4, 55.4), Composite (55.4, 55.3)
• 09/04 1000 ISM Services Index (50.1, 51.0)
• 09/04 1000 ISM Services Prices Paid (69.9, 69.5)
• 09/04 1000 ISM Services New Orders (50.3, --), Employment (46.4, --)
• 09/04 1130 US Tsy $100B 4W & $85B 8W bill auctions
• 09/04 1205 NY Fed Williams on economy/policy
• 09/04 1900 Chicago Fed Goolsbee moderated Q&A
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

RRP usage continues to retreat to lowest levels since early April 2021 today: $17.923B with 17 counterparties this afternoon, from $21.066B yesterday. Compares to this year's high usage of $460.731B on June 30.