EURGBP TECHS: Sights Are On Key Resistance

Greece and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium and the ESM have already come to the market. We estimate issuance in first round operations at E26.9bln for the week, up from E18.8bln last week.

• This morning, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 52-week Sep 4, 2026 GTB.
• Also today, the EU will conclude bill issuance for the week with up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Dec 5, 2025 EU-bill on offer alongside up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Mar 6, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the new 12-month Sep 4, 2026 EU-bill.

• RES 4: 107.245 High Jul 24  
• RES 3: 107.185 High Aug 1
• RES 2: 107.139 50-day EMA and a key area of resistance
• RES 1: 107.063/125 20-day EMA / High Aug 27 
• PRICE: 106.975 @ 06:14 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 106.960 Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 107.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 4: 106.870 2.000 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The trend outlook in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent short-term gains have been corrective. The bear trigger at 106.970, the Aug 25 low, has been breached, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for an extension towards 106.928, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at 107.125, the Aug 27 high.

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4  
• RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3550/3595 High Sep 1 / High Aug 14
• RES 1: 1.3742 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3372 @ 06:27 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 1.3340 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

Tuesday’s sell-off in GBPUSD undermines the recent bull theme. The pair has traded through a key support at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low. The clear break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 1.3315 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, a breach of 1.3595, the Aug 14 high, is required to reinstate a bull theme. Initial resistance is at 1.3742, the 20-day EMA.