EU BASIC INDUSTRIES: SIG: Investor Day     

A fairly narrow start for GBP STIRs as well, with SONIA futures -0.5 to +1.0.

• BoE-dated OIS similarly flat, showing just under 5bp of easing through year-end, with the next cut not fully discounted until the end of the April MPC.
• We continue to suggest that the market is underpricing the odds of a cut in Q4, but note that such a move would likely require support from Governor Bailey, as well as Deputy Governor’s Ramsden & Breeden (in addition to dovish dissenters Dhingra & Taylor).
• Ramsden maintained his position as the most dovish MPC member that did not vote for a cut in September via his speech yesterday, with Breeden set to speak today. We will also hear from BoE’s Lombardelli & Mann today.
• No reaction to modest revisions in the final update to UK Q2 GDP data.

• USDJPY tumbles toward 148.00, taking its cue from the pull lower in Yields, US Tnotes (TYZ5) is testing the initial small resistance of 112.22, although better is seen at 113.00.
• For the USDJPY, first support comes at 147.46.

• MNI: FRANCE SEP FLASH HICP -1.1% M/M, +1.1% Y/Y
• FRANCE SEP FLASH CPI -1.0% M/M, +1.2% Y/Y