EU CAPITAL GOODS: Siemens Energy (SIENFI NR/BBB-/NR): 2Q25 Preliminary Results
Credit positive. The preliminary release was light on commentary, with beats from Gas Services, Grid Technologies and Gamesa. Every business line sees FY guidance upgrades with FCF particularly strong.
- Siemens Energy reported preliminary revenue 7% ahead of consensus.
- Profit before SI beat by 59%, with margin 3ppt better at 9.1%
- FCF pre-tax was €1.4bn, up from €0.5bn YoY.
- FY25 LfL revenue growth guidance was increased to 13-15% from 8-10% (consensus 11%). Profit before SI margin guidance was bumped by 1ppt to 4-6% (consensus 4.7%). FCF pre-tax is now seen around €4bn; this was previously “under review” from €1bn guidance. Consensus had €2.3bn.
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STIR: Over 50bp Of BoE Cuts Priced, Macro To Dominate Ahead Of Thursday Risks
GBP STIRs little changed to a touch more hawkish with Bunds and Tays away from yesterday’s highs since the SONIA futures settlement.
- Little of note when it comes to UK headline flow, with focus on Thursday’s BoE decision (no change in Bank Rate expected, focus on the vote split) and labour market data.
- We will provide greater detail ahead of those events via the usual previews.
- BoE-dated OIS shows essentially 0 odds of movement in Bank Rate this week, 18.5bp of cuts through May, 23bp of cuts through June, 36.5bp through August and 52.5bp of cuts through year-end. Contracts within 0.5bp of yesterday’s closing levels.
- SONIA futures +0.25 to -2.0.
- Recent ranges intact.
- Macro & cross-market cues are set to continue to dominate today, given the backloaded nature of this week’s UK risk events.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.458 | +0.3 |
May-25 | 4.271 | -18.4 |
Jun-25 | 4.227 | -22.8 |
Aug-25 | 4.089 | -36.6 |
Sep-25 | 4.046 | -40.8 |
Nov-25 | 3.953 | -50.2 |
Dec-25 | 3.928 | -52.7 |
GERMANY: Timings For Today's Fiscal Reform Debate & Voting, Passage Expected
There are suggestions that the political parties will conduct test votes to gauge support for the fiscal reform ahead of today’s Bundestag gathering. The straw polls/test votes are seemingly scheduled for 09:00 CET/08:00 GMT and could generate headlines.
- The Bundestag session will get underway at 10:00 CET/09:00 GMT, with the debate surrounding the amendments to the relevant fiscal laws scheduled to start at 10:35 CET/09:35 GMT.
- A roll call-vote will then follow the debate (some have suggested this could start around 13:30 CET/12:30 GMT), with the session scheduled to conclude at 15:05 CET/14:05 GMT.
- Chancellor-in-waiting Merz has stated that only a small handful of no votes will come from the CDU-CSU, while dissenters and absentees from the Greens & SPD are expected to be in the low single digits.
- A reminder that the 3 parties have a buffer of 31 votes when it comes to passing the package.
- While odds of a rejection of the amendments are not 0, base cases and market pricing continue to lean heavily towards the reform passing through the Bundestag.
- It then needs to pass through the Bundesrat before the new government sits on 25 March.
USD: The Yen is under broader pressure
- The Dollar was trading mostly in the Green against G10 during the European Overnight session, but since the EU Cash Govie open, the Greenback has given back some of its gains, and overall is pretty much flat against all G10s, besides the Yen.
- The Yen is seeing another volatile session overnight and has extended losses across the board, to trade in the red against all the Majors, Rand leads, up 0.53% in early trade.
- Within G10s, the Kiwi and the Dollar lead, up 0.44% and 0.36% respectively, albeit off their best levels at the Time of Typing.
- Some overnight desks have mentioned possible Positioning ahead of the BoJ decision Tomorrow, when the Central Bank is widely expected to keep its Rate unchanged at 0.50%.
- Next resistance in USDJPY comes at 150.18 High Mar 5.
