EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17
- RES 3: 0.8774 High Dec 19
- RES 2: 0.8734 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8703 Low Dec 30
- PRICE: 0.8675 @ 17:01 GMT Jan 9
- SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
- SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
A sharp sell-off in EURGBP earlier this week confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is 0.8734, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to highlight a possible reversal.
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US TSYS: Paring Support in Leadup to FOMC
- Still bid, Treasury futures are scaling back from recent session highs ahead of the FOMC & SEP annc at the top of the hour.
- Currently, TYH6 trades 112-05 (+2) vs. 112-07.5 high, initial key resistance is seen at 112-25+, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible reversal.
- In the event of a reversal, TYH6 - breach of round number support - strengthens a bear theme and signals scope for a move towards 111-19 next a Fibonacci projection.
- Curves mixed: 2s10s +.329 at 57.229, 5s30s -.430 at 101.347.
- Bbg US$ index little off recent lows: BBDXY at 1212.84 -1.98.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Flag Formation
- RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17
- RES 3: 1.3452 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3416 High Oct 21
- RES 1: 1.3385 High Dec 04
- PRICE: 1.3333 @ 16:26 GMT Dec 10
- SUP 1: 1.3268 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3241 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3180/25 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 26
- SUP 4: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger
The latest pause in GBPUSD appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. This reinforces the current uptrend. The breach of the 50-day EMA undermined a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3452, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3241, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would be a bearish development.
