USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 1.4274 High Apr 9
- RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4140/55 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
- PRICE: 1.4001 @ 17:24 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 1.3994 Low Nov 12
- SUP 2: 1.3957 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3878 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
USDCAD is trading below last week’s high. The latest pullback highlights a potential bearish development and a possible reversal. Resistance at the top of a bull channel, currently at 1.4155, remains intact. The bull channel is drawn from the Jul 23 low. The pair has pierced support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.4021. This exposes the 50-day EMA at 1.3957. For bulls, a break of the channel top is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets Tuesday
| 2245BST | 0545HKT | 0845AEDT | New Zealand Sep Card Spending |
| 0001BST | 0701HKT | 1001AEDT | UK Sep BRC Sales Y/Y |
| 0050BST | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Sep Money Stock |
| 0100BST | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia 2039 Bond Sale |
| 0130BST | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Australia Sep NAB Business Conditions |
| 0130BST | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Australia RBA Minutes |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.4111/39 High Apr 10 / 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 1.4072 Bull channel top drawn from the Jul 23 low
- RES 1: 1.4034 High Oct 9 and 10
- PRICE: 1.4029 @ 15:56 BST Oct 13
- SUP 1: 1.3916/3856 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3795 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact. Last Thursday’s rally confirmed a recent bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111 next, the Apr 10 high, and further out scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is at 1.3856, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6560 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:11 BST Oct 13
- SUP 1: 0.6473 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 0.6463 Low Aug 27
- SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD on Friday resulted in a break of 0.6521, the Sep 26 low, and 0.6484, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg. This undermines the recent bullish theme and instead signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards key support at 0.6415, the Aug 21 and 22 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6560, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
