EQUITIES: Short-Term Bear Cycle in Eurostoxx 50 Futures Still in Play
A short-term bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract has traded to a fresh cycle low today. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. Price has also traded through 5279.00, May 23 low. The clear break of both support points signals a S/T top and scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 5182.00, the May 2 low and 5100.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is 5343.47, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish. For now, the most recent shallow pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 6007.80, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA, at 5906.79. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 49.14 pts or -0.13% at 38354.09 and the TOPIX ended 10.08 pts lower or -0.36% at 2761.18.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 21.686 pts or +0.65% at 3381.582 and the HANG SENG ended 158.65 pts higher or +0.67% at 23689.13.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 0.7 pts or 0% at 23348.23, FTSE 100 higher by 3.44 pts or +0.04% at 8778.08, CAC 40 down 1.39 pts or -0.02% at 7587.47 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 8.75 pts or +0.17% at 5241.86.
- Dow Jones mini up 51 pts or +0.12% at 42565, S&P 500 mini up 14.25 pts or +0.24% at 6032, NASDAQ mini up 61.25 pts or +0.28% at 21904.5.
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
- Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
- Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
- For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.
- The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
- With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
- Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
