ILS: Shekel Slightly Softer, Inflation Data On Tap
Oct-15 09:44
USD/ILS changes hands at 3.2905, up 60 pips on the day, as local markets re-open after a public holiday. Bulls look for gains beyond the 50-DMA (3.3429), with bears setting their sights on Oct 9 low of 3.2375.
- Reuters cited the Bank of Israel as pushing back against rumours that the next monetary policy decision could be brought forward because of the ceasefire in Gaza. This came after Israeli media circulated source reports suggesting that BoI was considering moving the meeting to deliver an interest-rate cut.
- US President Trump said that 'job is not done' on Gaza peace plan as 'the dead have not been returned as promised. He warned that either Hamas disarms 'or we will disarm them, and it’ll happen quickly and perhaps violently.'
- Israel's September inflation data will cross the wires at 16:30BST/18:30IDT. Consensus is for the headline rate to remain at +2.9% Y/Y, where it printed in August.
- The TA-35 Index has now unwound the bulk of its early gains and sits 0.4% above neutral levels.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Tests Resistance
Sep-15 09:44
- In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared reinforcing a bull cycle. This signals scope for 1.1829, the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.1639.
- A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and price is trading at its recent highs. The rally that started Sep 3 has retraced the steep Sep 2 sell-off and highlights a stronger bullish development. This confirms the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. Sights are on resistance at 1.3595 (pierced), the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 1.3475, the 50-day EMA.
- USDJPY continues to trade inside a range. Key short-term support to watch is 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat and a range breakout. This would expose 145.40, 50% of the Apr - Aug upleg. On the upside, clearance of 149.14, the Sep 3 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
FOREX: AUDUSD Consolidating Recent Breakout, Eyes Nov 07 Highs
Sep-15 09:43
- The dollar index has operated within a 21 pip range on Monday, as markets await a stacked data and central bank calendar this week, headlined by the Fed. While moves remain moderate, the likes of AUD and GBP are outperforming early Monday in G10 FX.
- This has allowed AUDUSD to rise back towards cycle highs. Last week’s gains plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirmed a resumption of the technical uptrend, and the pair has narrowed the gap substantially to the US election related highs at 0.6688. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and sights will be on 0.6729, the 1.236 projection of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing.
- JP Morgan have noted the AUDUSD impulsive rally has lifted the pair into the 0.6658-0.6722 resistance zone. This includes the Nov 2021 trend line and the confluence of medium-term Fibonacci retracement levels. While JPM suspect the pair can pause near that resistance, there is no evidence that the rally is exhausted at this point.
- Separately, it is worth highlighting that this morning’s high for AUDNZD has matched a very significant resistance point for the cross at 1.1180. A breach of the level would place the cross at the highest level since late 2022, and above here, 1.1250 marks the next notable level, the 76.4% retracement point of the 2022 selloff. We noted last week that BofA forecasts imply further AUDNZD appreciation, and they have a current 2026 year-end forecast of 1.15.
DUTCH T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: DTC Results
Sep-15 09:39
| Type | 4.5-month DTC | 5.5-month DTC |
| Maturity | Jan 29, 2026 | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.92bln | E1.13bln |
| Target | E1.0-2.0bln | E1.0-2.0bln |
| Previous | E1.54bln | E1.44bln |
| Avg yield | 1.964% | 1.970% |
| Previous | 1.945% | 1.954% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.86x | 1.96x |
| Previous | 1.31x | 1.44x |
| Previous date | Aug 18, 2025 | Sep 01, 2025 |
