ILS: Shekel Edges Lower, Market Weighs Below-Forecast CPI Print
USD/ILS changes hands at 3.3033, 119 pips higher on the day, with bulls eyeing resistance from the 50-DMA (3.3405). Bearish focus is on 3.2375, which limited losses on Oct 9.
- Israel warned that it could 'resume fighting and act to achieve a total defeat of Hamas' if the group does not comply with the ceasefire deal. Hamas is yet to return the bodies of some hostages but has claimed that has been unable to find them so far.
- Data released yesterday showed that CPI inflation cooled to +2.5% Y/Y in September from +2.9%, missing expectations of a repeat of the August print. Prices fell by 0.6% M/M, while consensus was for a 0.3% downtick.
- Goldman Sachs wrote that the main driver of the downside surprise was 'the usual suspect airfares inflation', while otherwise 'changes to the CPI basked were smaller'. The latest print increases their confidence in a BoI cut at the November meeting, although this hinges on geopolitical developments and the October inflation reading.
- The Globes noted that airline fares are set to fall further as foreign carriers have been gradually restarting flights to Tel Aviv, which should accelerate on the back of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, resulting in growing competition.
- Israel will publish final Q2 GDP data at the top of the hour (11:00BST/13:00IDT).
- The TA-35 Index is 1% softer on the day.
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SOFR: SFRZ5 Sold
Recent trade in SFRZ5 sees 5K given at 96.355 as bonds move away from highs, goes offered on the follow.
GERMAN DATA: Don't Read Into The Stronger-than-expected ZEW Expectations Index
The September German ZEW survey’s expectations component was much stronger-than-expected at 37.3 (vs 25.0 cons), but was only a little higher than August’s 34.7 reading. We suspect that consensus for the expectations component was weighed down by the late-August pullback in the Stoxx50 index. The ZEW has historically been sensitive to prior M/M stock market moves, though this signal appears to have lost some power in recent months.
- The current conditions component meanwhile was weaker-than-expected at -76.4 in August (vs -73.6 cons, -68.6 prior), down from a cycle high of -59.5 in July.
- The press release notes that “The outlook has improved in particular for export-oriented sectors, which had recently suffered a strong decline. Among the industries that benefit most are the automotive sector, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry and the metal sector. Nevertheless, the three indicators for these industries continue to be in the negative range”
EGBS: Bund Futures Weaken Into 5-year German Auction Before Stabilising
Bund futures weakened into this morning’s E4.5bln 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl auction before stabilising. Futures are currently -9 ticks at 128.64, off earlier session highs of 128.90. Initial support is Friday’s low at 128.51, which shields the Sep 4 low at 128.25.
- The German auction saw slightly softer cover ratios than last month's outing, but the lowest accepted price was nonetheless in excess of the pre-auction mid price. Finland will sell bonds later this morning, while Slovakia has also already come to the market today.
- Bunds found light support from a pullback in equities and crude oil futures earlier, but moves have generally lacked conviction.
- The German curve has bear steepened, with yields +0.5 to +2.5bps higher.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are biased slightly tighter. The BTP/Bund spread is eyeing a test of the August low of ~76.7bps (currently -0.5bps at 77.5bps).
- The September German ZEW survey’s expectations component was much stronger-than-expected at 37.3 (vs 25.0 cons), but was only a little higher than August’s 34.7 reading. Meanwhile, Eurozone July industrial production was slightly softer than forecast at 0.3% M/M (vs 0.4% cons, an upwardly revised -0.6% prior).
- ECBspeak hasn’t been market moving. Maltese CB Governor Scicluna had a more hawkish tone than Kazaks earlier in the morning.
