SWEDEN: Sharp Fall In Swedish Vehicle Exports To US Before EU-US Trade Deal
The Swedish goods trade balance slipped into deficit in August (-SEK8.9bln vs SEK3.6bln prior), but that’s in line with seasonal norms. On a 12-month rolling basis, net exports were SEK65.9bln, down from SEK68.5bln in July for the lowest trade surplus since last November. This reflected a larger declined in 12-month rolling exports compared to imports.
- Country-level data is only available as of June. In June, Sweden’s trade surplus with the US declined to SEK102.0bln, the lowest since mid-2022. This data provides a picture before the EU-US trade deal was announced, but highlights a notable reduction in exports to one of Sweden’s largest trading partners (~9% of total exports).
- We note a sharp drop off in vehicle exports to the US as of May, which slightly reversed in June. Vehicles are one of Sweden’s main exports to the US (~20% of total).
- The EU-US trade agreement will see a reduction in auto tariffs to 15%, down from the prior 25% level. The US has confirmed that this tariff reduction will be backdated to August 1.
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GILTS: Opening calls
- Gilt Dec (G Z5) call, 90.42/90.45 range.
These can be a little distorted because of the spread, Yesterday it settled at 4.
AUDUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Latest Gains
- RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6524 High Aug 18
- PRICE: 0.6485 @ 07:56 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22
- SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16
AUDUSD is holding on to its latest gains following the recovery from last week’s low. The rally signals the end of the recent corrective phase. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 0.6569, the Aug 14 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.6625, the Aug 24 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would resume the bear leg.
EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls
EU Cash Opening calls, focus will be on Tech after hours, NVIDIA reports earnings.
- Calls: Estox 50: +0.15%, Dax: +0.17%, CAC: +0.16%, FTSE +0.28%, SMI +0.15%.
