EURJPY TECHS: Sharp Downtick, But No Clear of Test on Support

• RES 4: 0.8789 High Feb 27 and key S/T resistance
• RES 3: 0.8739 High Mar 3
• RES 2: 0.8700 50.0% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.8684 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8663 @ 17:38 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase 

EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery is considered corrective and attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8684. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 0.8739, the Mar 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.8610, the Mar 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle.  

EGB and Gilt yields retreated Wednesday amid cautious optimism of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict.

• There was an early rally on overnight developments in the Middle East war, including reports that the US has sent Iran a list of conditions for a temporary ceasefire.
• As Wednesday's session progressed, bond gains faded, with Iran reportedly rejecting the US ceasefire proposal.
• ECB's Lagarde dampened rate hike pricing for April with her comments that included "We will not act before we have sufficient information on the size and persistence of the shock and its propagation". BOE's Greene brought a similar dovish reaction in UK rates after saying she was not tempted to support a rate hike at the March meeting.
• UK February CPI came in almost exactly in line with expectations; in other data, German IFO fell in March in line with consensus.
• On the day, the German curve leaned bull steeper, with the UK's bull flattening. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads tightened.
• Thursday's data schedule includes various confidence surveys across France, Germany, Italy and the UK, as well as the Norges Bank decision. We also hear from BOE's Breeden and Taylor, and ECB's Guindos and Muller.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 7.8bps at 2.595%, 5-Yr is down 7.2bps at 2.686%, 10-Yr is down 7.6bps at 2.951%, and 30-Yr is down 6.4bps at 3.426%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 7.7bps at 4.391%, 5-Yr is down 9.7bps at 4.409%, 10-Yr is down 13.2bps at 4.826%, and 30-Yr is down 14.7bps at 5.425%.
• Italian BTP spread down 5bps at 87.5bps / Greek down 4.8bps at 84bps

Reuters reports that President Donald Trump's approval rating “​fell in recent days to its lowest point since he returned to the White House, hit ‌by a surge in fuel prices and widespread disapproval of the war he launched on Iran.”

• According to Reuters, “Americans' ​views on Trump soured significantly with regard to his stewardship over the cost of living, as ​gasoline prices have surged since the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on ⁠February 28. Just 25% of respondents approved of Trump's handling of the cost of living, an issue that ​was at the center of his 2024 presidential election campaign.”
• Reuters notes, “Trump's standing within his Republican Party remains mostly strong. Only ​about one in five Republicans said they disapprove of his overall performance in the White House, little changed from about one in seven last week. But the share of Republicans who disapprove of his handling of the cost of living rose to 34% ​from 27% last week.”
• Silver Bulletin's aggregated approval tracker shows Trump's rating on a steady slide downwards since the start of the war. According to the outlet, Trump's approval currently sits at net -16.6%, notably lower than the previous low of net -15% in late November. Trump's performance on the economy is particularly poor, with an approval rating of 31.5% and 37.6% for inflation and the economy respectively.

Figure 1: Do you approve of how the president is handling the economy?

Source: Reuters-Ipsos