SONIA: SFIU6/H7 Steepener Flow

Looking at the details of the Swiss CPI print shows the following:

• Unrounded headline CPI was 0.02% (down from 0.10% in October, a 0.08ppt slowdown).
• Housing rentals contributed -0.05pp to the change in headline CPI (this only updates quarterly and is likely to remain persistent)
• Hospitality also contributed -0.05ppt to the change in headline CPI (coming from hotels, volatile package holidays playing only a minor part)
• Food and energy both contributed around +0.02ppt each, to partially offset this.
• These were the major drivers, for detailed calculations, see chart / table below.

What remains on net is a soft print which, while by itself is very unlikely to prompt an SNB cut into negative territory, warrants further monitoring. This applies especially as the downside this time was centred around domestic categories - which the SNB has flagged previously when looking at underlying inflationary pressures. Having said that, what's not quite so clear is their stance on the housing slowdown, with some previous comments suggesting that they merely view it as a lagged function of headline which may imply less feedthrough to policy. Also, we don't know what number they had pencilled in for rentals, either. So it's hard to know if this is the driver of the surprise, or if it is more broad based.

CHF saw a limited reaction to the release.

• MNI: SPAIN NOV SERV PMI 55.6 (56.3 FCAST, 56.6 OCT)

• RES 4: $60.852 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing 
• RES 3: $60.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $59.563 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: $58.947 - High Dec 1   
• PRICE: $58.050 @ 08:10 GMT Dec 3
• SUP 1: $52.607 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $49.583/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish - price has traded to a fresh all-time high this week. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The move above $55.00 signals scope for a climb towards $59.563 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the $60.00 psychological handle. Initial support lies at $52.607, the 20-day EMA.