POLAND: Several Signs of Progress for Warmer US-Poland Relations
- Several indications of warming US relations with Poland: US Sec of State Rubio confirmed that the US will welcome Poland to the G20 meetings set to be hosted in the US next year, confirming Trump's formal invitation to Nawrocki after the visit to Washington in September. Deputy Foreign Minister Niemczycki is set to speak later today, where he'll likely cover the invitation. In addition, the US ambassador to Poland is to take part in a ceremony marking Poland's armed forces being able to access the Wideband Global SATCOM (WGS) system - the network provided by the US Dept of Defense that connects the US to it's allies overseas.
- Wages across Poland are likely to slow in 2026, according to a Rzeczpospolita report covering WTW research. The piece puts average raises next year at 5%.
- Following the Visegrad meeting yesterday, Presidents of Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia discussed security, Poland's eastern flank and Ukraine, according to a statement. Given the energy supply pressures on eastern Europe (Hungary in particular), reports suggest Poland are gearing to become a major distributer of gas from the United States, in particular from LNG terminals in Swinoujscie and Gdansk.
- Following yesterday's rate decision, NBP Head Glapinski is set to speak at his usual press conference later today at 1400GMT/1500CET. A PAP summary of the decison writes that markets now expect the bank to refrain from further cuts until March/April, after a streak of "intensive" easing.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
WTI TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $60.74 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: $59.64/55.96 - Low Oct 23 & 30 / Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
WTI futures remain in a corrective cycle for now. Note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that a resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Phase Remains In Play For Now
- RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $4161.4/4381.5 - High Oct 22 / High Oct 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $4046.2 - High Oct 31
- PRICE: $3992.1 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $3864.7 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: $3751.3 - 50.0% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg
Gold is unchanged. A fresh cycle low last week highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3864.7. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
BRENT TECHS: (F6) Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9
- PRICE: $64.60 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: $63.37/59.97 - Low Oct 24 / 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
A short-term corrective bull cycle in Brent futures appears intact for now and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $64.72. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next hurdle to monitor is $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of this level would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $59.97, the Oct 20 low.
