EUROPEAN INFLATION: Services Rebound As French Flash Inflation Above Consensus

Jun-27 06:47

French flash June HICP was a tenth higher than consensus at 0.82% Y/Y (vs 0.7% cons, 0.59% prior). There was a notable rebound in services according to the CPI details – some analysts had expected services to rebound in June, but others had pencilled in a broadly unchanged Y/Y rate.  

  • CPI was also a bit higher than expected at 0.93% Y/Y (vs 0.8% cons, 0.66% prior).
  • Looking at the breakdown of subcomponents in the CPI:
    • Services accelerated to 2.41% Y/Y (vs 2.09% in May and 2.39% in April). Seemingly, the Easter timing unwind seen in May has reversed.
    • Non-energy industrial goods was steady at -0.18% Y/Y (vs -0.19% in May, -0.17% in April).
    • Food inflation was 1.37% Y/Y (vs 1.31% prior.
    • Energy inflation was -6.93% Y/Y (vs -8.01% prior) – this also seems a somewhat larger increase than some analysts had pencilled in.
  • France makes up 19% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2025.

Historical bullets

MNI: FRANCE GDP Q1 2ND EST +0.1% Q/Q

May-28 06:45
  • MNI: FRANCE GDP Q1 2ND EST +0.1% Q/Q
  • FRANCE GDP Q1 2ND EST +0.6% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE APR CONSUMER SPENDING +0.3% M/M, -0.1% Y/Y

May-28 06:45
  • MNI: FRANCE APR CONSUMER SPENDING +0.3% M/M, -0.1% Y/Y
  • MNI: FRANCE APR CONSUMER MANUF SPENDING +1.5% M/M, +0.8% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE APR PPI -4.3% M/M, -0.8% Y/Y

May-28 06:45
  • MNI: FRANCE APR PPI -4.3% M/M, -0.8% Y/Y