US DATA: Services PMI Revised Lower But Still Solid In Final November Release

• Despite the greenback making initial further progress on Monday, the USD index rally has stalled just ahead of the psychological 100 mark, and the August highs at 100.25. Additionally, weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing and prices paid data have provided a moderate dollar headwind, especially against a backdrop of relatively few US data releases in recent weeks.
• Softer-than-expected CPI data in Switzerland this morning has resulted in the Swiss Franc being the weakest currency across the G10 today. EURCHF (+0.28%) held a significant medium-term support last week, and spot is now operating roughly 100 pips above the key 0.9206 level. A break back above 50-day EMA resistance at 0.9308 would be a bullish development, likely allowing the cross to re-establish the 0.93-0.94 range that was broadly in place between May/September.
• USDCAD's +0.30% Monday rally puts the pair on course for a third consecutive higher daily close but, more importantly, the pair is on course to test and break 1.4080 resistance to clear to the best levels since mid-April's Liberation Day. Tomorrow's Federal Budget in Canada remains a key risk with some analysts touting risks of a "significantly more expansionary than previous" annual budget. The next topside level would be 1.4111, the Apr 10 high.
• There was a slight divergence between the antipodeans to start the week, with AUDNZD trading to a fresh cycle high of 1.1461. Solid demand was found beneath 1.13 and the latest strength further narrows the gap towards the 2022 highs at 1.1491. A break of this level would place the cross at its highest point since 2013. The RBA decision highlights the APAC calendar on Tuesday, and NZ employment data is scheduled Wednesday.
• Other central bank decisions due later in the week include the Riksbank, Norges Bank and the Bank of England.

• RES 4: 1.1779 High Oct 1
• RES 3: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 1: 1.1577 Low Oct 22 
• PRICE: 1.1530 @ 16:24 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.1505 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 1.1460 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD traded lower Monday, as the current bear leg extends. The pair last Friday breached an important support  at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. Note that 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 17 high.

• It has less to go on under the government shutdown but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate has been revised up marginally to 3.99% annualized for Q3 real GDP growth, a fresh high, after 3.93% on Oct 24.
• Whilst it isn’t a material departure from the 3.8-3.9% updates seen through October, it’s still solid considering today’s ISM manufacturing report surprised to the downside.
• The small upward revision from Oct 24 is led by an additional 0.04pps coming from personal consumption. Equipment investment tracking was also revised up from 8.7% to 9.0% but that’s only worth an extra 0.01pp to GDP.
• It points to robust GDP growth after the 3.8% in Q2 and -0.6% in Q1, or an average of 1.6% through 1H25 when trying to control for tariff front-running, after the 2.4% through 2024.
• Alternatively, private domestic final purchases (PDFP – a favorite of Fed Chair Powell) is seen on track for a strong ~3.2% in Q3. That would be a further recovery from the 2.4% averaged in 1H25 after the 2.9% through 2024.