EUROPEAN INFLATION: Services Help Belgian Core Inflation Ease In May
May-28 09:30
Belgian May flash HICP inflation was 2.8% Y/Y, down from 3.1% in April for the lowest reading since Januaary 2024. Annual CPI inflation eased to 2.01% (vs 2.55% prior), while CPI ex-energy and unprocessed foods decelerated to 2.59% Y/Y (vs 2.82% prior).
Looking at the major sub-components on a CPI basis:
- Services inflation eased to 3.65% Y/Y (vs 3.96% prior) despite an uptick in rent inflation to 3.60% (vs 3.51% prior). Airfares saw a -13.8% Y/Y reading, meaning the transport component pulled down headline inflation by 0.49pp.
- Food inflation was 2.04% Y/Y (vs 2.48% prior).
- Energy inflation was -1.10% Y/Y (vs +0.95% in April and 5.48% in March). On a monthly basis, there were declines in natural gas (-6.2%) and electricity (-4.0%), which pulled down respective annual rates. Fuel inflation was -9.9% Y/Y.
Figure 1: Belgium CPI Trends
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ITALY T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 5-month BOT results
Apr-28 09:10
| Type | 5-month BOT | 5-month BOT |
| Maturity | Sep 12, 2025 | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Amount | E2bln | E2bln |
| Target | E2.0bln | E2.0bln |
| Previous | E7bln | |
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| Previous | 2.268% | |
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| Previous | 1.48x | |
| Previous date | Mar 27, 2025 |
FOREX: USD Furtively Firmer in Low Conviction Morning
Apr-28 09:08
- The dollar is furtively firmer, but markets trade with little conviction early Monday having digested comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent over the weekend. Bessent talked up the progress of trade talks and negotiations with other parties after a meeting with his Japanese counterpart today - and stated that "some talks are moving well, especially with Asia".
- Equity futures are firmer across Europe, but lag somewhat in the US ahead of a busy earnings week. Earnings from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Apple are all due - covering a large swathe of the Magnificent Seven megacaps.
- Across G10, GBP trades well, gaining moderately against all others. Nonetheless, GBP/USD remains below last week's highs - which mark first resistance at 1.3349. Clearance above here opens more challenging levels at the cycle high of 1.3424 posted on the last USD slide. UK data is few and far between this week, however local election results on Thursday will provide the latest insight into how Starmer's government is performing inside the first year.
- It's a quiet data session to begin the week, with risk events and releases picking up across the week - culminating in MNI Chicago PMI on Wednesday, and the Payrolls report following on Friday. The Fed remain inside their pre-meeting media blackout, meaning central bank speak should be muted into next week's decision. ECB's Rehn and de Guindos are set to appear.
