EUROPEAN INFLATION: Services EZ HICP Lowest Since March 2022
Eurozone May flash HICP Y/Y inflation came in at 1.92%, 8 hundredths below the rounded consensus of 2.0% (vs 2.17% April) but inline with MNI's tracking estimate. On a monthly basis, Eurozone inflation came in at -0.03% (0.0% cons, 0.57% April). Services inflation stands out, seeing its lowest Y/Y rate since March 2022.
- Core HICP also printed below consensus, at 2.29% Y/Y and -0.01% M/M (2.4% cons; Apr 2.75% Y/Y, 1.02% M/M).
- Looking at the individual categories:
- Services inflation notably decelerated to 3.24% (3.98% Apr) - this means the category more than reversed April's unexpectedly firm print, now coming in 22 hundredths softer than March (3.46% Y/Y) and below May consensus (around 3.5% ahead of the national-level data). National-level data suggested that Easter Effect unwinds were at play here to some extent, and the Netherlands might have an outsized negative drag this time.
- Its therefore quite hard to interpret at this stage what the low services Y/Y print means re underlying softening - the final data will give more indication here.
- Energy inflation was little changed at -3.57% Y/Y (-3.56% Apr), a little softer than consensus which we saw at -3.4% Y/Y.
- Non-energy industrial goods, as expected, also was stable in May, at 0.63% Y/Y (0.57% Apr). Stronger Chinese exports into Europe, prompted by firmer US tariff barriers, may start
to weigh on durable goods prices later in Q2. - Food, alcohol and tobacco inflation ticked up and was firmer than expected - the category printed 3.25% Y/Y (2.97% April, consensus was for 3.1%).
- Looking at the national-level prints, headline HICP inflation accelerated in 6 countries in May vs April despite the overall decrease in headline.
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USDCAD TECHS: Hits Bear Trigger, New Cycle Low
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4087 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3906/3935 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3793 @ 17:00 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 1.3760 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend set-up in USDCAD deteriorated further Friday, with prices slipping through the bear trigger to narrow the gap with next support. The fresh cycle low reinforces the bear cycle and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3943, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Consolidation Phase
- RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6470 High May 2
- PRICE: 0.6445 @ 16:59 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 0.6344/6316 Low Apr 24 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support
AUDUSD remains inside a consolidation phase, having traded either side of the 0.6400 level for 10 consecutive sessions. The underlying trend remains bullish and the pair is trading close to recent highs. Price has recently breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6316, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.
US TSYS: Rates Retreat, Sentiment Improved Though Trade Risk Remains
- Treasuries look to finish near late Friday session lows after trading firmer on the open, higher than expected Nonfarm payrolls at 177k (sa, cons 138k) of which private contributed 167k (sa, cons 125k) triggered the early reversal.
- However, two-month revisions of -58k offset the 39k beat for nonfarm payrolls, with a similar story for private (a 42k surprise vs -48k two-month revision).
- Stocks are back near four week highs - pre-"Liberation Day" levels as hopes of some trade deal being made improved sentiment.
- The Wall Street Journal reports that "Beijing is considering ways to address the Trump administration’s gripes over China’s role in the fentanyl trade... potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start." The Journal notes that "discussions remain fluid" and China "would like to see some softening of stance from President Trump".
- Currently, the Jun'25 10Y contract trades -20 at 111-07.5 vs 111-02 low -- initial technical support (50-dma) followed by 110-16.5/109-08 (Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger). Curves bear flattened, 2s10s -3.480 at 48.002, 5s30s -4.911 at 86.807.
