NORWAY: September Inflation Due At 0700BST, CPI-ATE Expected Steady
Norwegian September inflation is due at 0700BST/0800CET. Analysts expect CPI-ATE inflation at 3.1% Y/Y, which would be unchanged relative to August but a tenth below Norges Bank’s September MPR projection. If consensus is realised, we don’t expect it to be a gamechanger for Norges Bank. The Board will need to see much more evidence of declining underlying price pressures before deviating from its cautious stance, particularly with mainland demand still relatively resilient.
- A reminder that in the September MPR, Norges Bank projected just one rate cut in each of the next three years. This suggests the bar to a December cut is fairly high.
- CPI-ATE inflation has been stuck at 3.1% Y/Y since June, and Norges Bank projects only modest disinflation to 2.7% Y/Y by Q4 2026. A Government policy reducing child daycare prices has also weighed on CPI-ATE inflation since August 2024. Last month, CPI-ATE would have been 3.5% Y/Y if child daycare prices were excluded.
- Analysts generally expect food and rent inflation to remain elevated in September, but the latter is expected to decelerate a little relative to August.
- Headline inflation is expected at 3.5% Y/Y, steady versus August but two tenths below Norges Bank’s projection.
- See below for a selection of analyst views:
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 8 September
Italy is still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, France Spain, Belgium and Finland have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E25.5bln in first-round operations, down from E26.8bln last week.
- To conclude issuance for the week this morning, Italy will look to sell E9bln of the new 12-month Sep 14, 2026 BOT.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Is Intact For Now
- RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and 23 (cont)
- RES 3: 107.240 High Aug 4
- RES 2: 107.225 High Aug 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.190 High Sep 5 and 8
- PRICE: 107.145 @ 06:19 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 107.050 Low Aug 25 and Sep 2 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.000 Round number support
- SUP 3: 106.983 138.2% retracement proj of the Aug 25 - 27 rally
- SUP 4: 106.963 150.0% retracement proj of the Aug 25 - 27 rally
The trend structure in Schatz futures remains bearish and - for now - recent short-term gains still appear corrective. Attention is on the next important support at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 107.00 handle. Key short-term resistance to watch is 107.225, the Aug 27 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger bullish theme and signal a stronger reversal.
GBPUSD TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4
- RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
- RES 2: 1.3595 High Aug 14 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3590 High Sep 9
- PRICE: 1.3540 @ 06:33 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 1.3465/3333 50-day EMA / Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
GBPUSDis holding on to its gains since rallying off the Sep 3 low. The climb has retraced the steep sell-off on Sep 2 and highlights a stronger bullish development. This also suggests the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. Sights are on resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. A break would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 1.3465, the 50-day EMA.
