SWEDEN: September Flash Inflation Due At 0700BST/0800CET; No Fireworks Expected
Swedish flash September inflation is due at 0700BST/0800CET, but is not expected to be a major market mover. The Riksbank has signalled that it is likely to remain on hold going forward, after delivering a 25bp cut to 1.75% in September. The Board will require a much larger stock of data than one inflation report to consider deviating from this stance.
- Analysts expect CPIF ex-energy inflation to ease to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.9% in August). The Riksbank’s September MPR projects a larger deceleration to 2.7% Y/Y.
- A continued pullback in volatile components such as car rentals and package holidays are expected to contribute to disinflation in September. These components drove the inflation uptick over the summer, but the Riksbank assesses these dynamics to have been temporary.
- There is some uncertainty amongst analysts around the contribution from the clothing and footwear component in September (see image for more).
- CPIF ex-energy is expected to fall significantly below target next year due to the Government’s temporary food VAT tax cut. The Riksbank will look through associated swings in annual inflation rates. Indicators of price pressures (e.g. Economic Tendency Indicator expected prices) point to subdued underlying inflationary pressures ahead.
- As always, the flash release does not contain any details. The final report is due on October 15.
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EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8713 High Sep 2
- PRICE: 0.8679 @ 06:42 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: 0.8633/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
EURGBP is trading closer to its recent highs. The cross has recently breached resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bearish threat.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 8 September
Germany, France, Spain, Belgium, Finland and Italy are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E25.3bln in first-round operations, down from E26.8bln last week.
- This morning, Germany will look to sell E1.5bln of the 11-month Aug 19, 2026 Bubill.
- This afternoon, France will look to issue up to a combined E7.1bln of 13/26/52-week BTFs: E2.6-3.0bln of the 13-week Dec 10, 2025 BTF, E1.5-1.9bln of the 26-week Mar 11, 2026 BTF and E1.8-2.2bln of the new 52-week Sep 9, 2026 BTF.
- Tomorrow morning, Spain will look to come to the market with the 3-month Dec 5, 2025 letras and the 9-month Jun 5, 2026 letras. Details of the auction size will be announced today.
- Also tomorrow morning, Belgium will look sell E3.0-3.4bln of TCs: An indicative E1.2bln of the 3-month Dec 11, 2025 TC and an indicative E2.0bln of the new 12-month Sep 10, 2026 TC.
- Finally tomorrow, Finland will look to issue up to a combined E2bln of the 8-month May 13, 2026 RFTB and the new 11-month Aug 13, 2026 RFTB.
- To conclude issuance for the week on Wednesday, Italy will look to sell E9bln of the new 12-month Sep 14, 2026 BOT.
USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 148.78/149.14 High Aug 22 / High Sep 3
- PRICE: 148.01 @ 06:37 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: 146.82/146.21 Low Sep 5 / Low Aug 14 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.41 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
- SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
Resistance to watch in USDJPY is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above it. A clear break of this level would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme, and open 149.81, a Fibonacci retracement. However, the pair has pulled back from its recent highs and remains inside its range. Key support to watch is 146.21, the Aug 14 low and the bear trigger.
