INDIA: September CPI Suggests No Impediment to Further Rate Cuts
• With cash and swap markets in India pricing in very little over the next RBI meeting, the overnight CPI release underscored that there is still no impediment to cutting, should the monetary policy committee deem necessary.
• Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has a CPI target, which is to keep headline CPI inflation at 4% within a tolerance band of +/−2%. This framework was enacted in 2016 and is scheduled to remain in place until March 2026.
• September’s Result of 1.54% was lowest since 2017, falling below the bottom of the tolerance band.
• Food prices have turned negative down -1.4% YoY as it captures the period last year when they moved sharply higher due to vegetable shortages (i.ei base effect).
• Core inflation was up though to +4.5% from +4.1% in August due to housing, but is forecast to moderate into year end.
• The recent rationalization of GST rates is further expected to have a downward impact on the overall inflationary environment, with estimates as to how much it could lower annual CPI ranging from a 60-80bps .
• The risks now for markets remain that a rate cut could become a possibility in an environment where little is priced in. The BBG MIPR function has -4bps priced in on a one month time horizon and -25bps over a three month time horizon. The RBI Base Rate currently is at 5.50% and the 2-Yr IGB at 5.63%. A move sub 5.60%, would take us to fresh cycle lows. In this environment, when coupled with global trade related risks and their impact on INR and equities, the risks for investors and yield movement for now likely remain lower from here given the inflationary backdrop.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Bounces Further Off Support
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.550 @ 15:36 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 96.430/95.900 - Low Sep 3 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures are trading off recent lows. A resumption of gains from here would further narrow the gap with resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Any continuation lower would instead strengthen a bearish threat. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would open 96.860, the Apr 7 high.
FED: MNI Fed Preview-September 2025: A Reluctant Return To Easing
We've published our preview of the upcoming FOMC meeting - Download Full Report Here
- The Federal Reserve is set to resume its easing cycle at the September 16-17 meeting with a 25bp cut to the funds rate range to 4.00-4.25%.
- The decision to cut after a 5-meeting pause was well-telegraphed by Chair Powell, whose Jackson Hole speech described a “shifting balance of risks” toward a weaker labor market that “may warrant adjusting our policy stance”.
- The updated quarterly projections aren’t likely to bring many changes to the macroeconomic variables, but as usual the signal sent from the Fed rate “Dot Plot” will garner attention. A Committee split between expecting one or two further cuts this year is likely, keeping each of the remaining meetings of 2025 “live”.
- The Statement will downgrade the description of the labor market to reflect a rise in the unemployment rate and poor payrolls growth, and is likely to include at least one dissent to the rate decision.
- But with a Committee that is fairly divided on the way forward, Powell will be noncommittal on future action, reiterating that policy is not on a preset course, and upcoming decisions will be data-dependent.
- A key undercurrent is an increasingly activist approach to Fed personnel management from the White House, which leaves the composition of the FOMC uncertain not just over the medium-term but also at this meeting.
MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Sep 15
RATINGS: Fitch: France Cut To A+ From AA, Portugal Up To A From A-
Fitch has downgraded France's sovereign rating to A+ (with stable outlook) from AA-. Release here.
- Among other factors in the decision, Fitch cites "High and Rising Debt Ratio", "Political Fragmentation Hinders Consolidation", "Weak Fiscal Record", "High 2025 Deficit", "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidation Path", and "Fiscal Rigidities".
- In "Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade", Fitch cites "Public Finances: A sustained increase in government debt/GDP over the medium term, due to failure to implement fiscal consolidation measures and/or a persistent increase in financing costs" and "Macro: Materially lower economic growth prospects and weakened competitiveness." Conversely, potentially leading to positive ratings action would be "Public Finances: Confidence that government debt/GDP will be put on a downward trajectory over the medium term, for example, due to fiscal consolidation and/or stronger economic growth".
- Fitch also raised Portugal to A (stable outlook) from A-, while elsewhere, S&P raised Spain to A+ (stable outlook) from A.
- As MNI wrote earlier, we expected France to be downgraded to A+ and Portugal to be upgraded to A.
