CHILE: Sept CPI Inflation Set To Edge Higher, Reinforcing BCCh’s Cautious Tone
Oct-08 10:44
- Headline consumer prices are expected to rise by 0.4% m/m in September, according to the latest Bloomberg consensus, following no change the month before (1200BST/0700ET). This would drive the annual rate of inflation up by 40bp to 4.4% y/y, above the ceiling of the BCCh’s 2-4% target range. The central bank’s preferred ex-volatiles measure of inflation is also likely to have remained close to the 4% target range ceiling, reinforcing policymakers recent caution on persistent core inflation pressures.
- Sept. CPI YoY Chained, est. 4.4%, prior 4.0%
- Sept. CPI MoM est. 0.4%, prior 0%
- USDCLP edged down by 0.3% yesterday to 959, as firmer copper prices provided some support to the peso. A continuation of weakness would signal scope for a move towards the 940.00 handle, while on the upside, an extension higher would instead open 977.57, the Sep 2 high.
- BBVA still sees spikes in USDCLP towards 970 as a potential entry point for going long the CLP, noting that some recent polls suggest that Chile’s centre-right parties could build a congressional majority in next month’s elections, which might open the door to more meaningful and potentially market-friendlier reforms.
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STIR: Payrolls Rally Broadly Consolidated With Tue-Thu Data Eyed
Sep-08 10:43
- Fed Funds implied rates are little changed since Friday’s close, holding what was only a modest paring of the rally on a soft payrolls report at the time.
- It sees close to three consecutive cuts priced to year-end, with only limited odds of a 50bp cut next week (~10%).
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 27.5bp Sep, 47bp Oct, 69.5bp Dec, 83.5bp Jan and 98.5bp Mar.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 2.86% (SFRH7) is 1bp lower from Friday as it sits a little off 150bp of cuts ahead from current levels. The yield is only 2.5bp lower than levels just prior to the NFP release after rates rallied into the release.
- It’s a quieter start to the week before preliminary payrolls benchmark revisions, PPI and CPI over Tue-Thu. The Fed is now in media blackout ahead of the FOMC meeting on Sep 16-17.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: NY Fed Inflation Exp, Consumer Credit
Sep-08 10:41
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 09/08 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.09%, --)
- 09/08 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W & $73B 26W bill auctions
- 09/08 1500 Consumer Credit $7.371B, $10.2B)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
FRANCE: Result of No-confidence Vote Not Expected Till 1900CET At The Earliest
Sep-08 10:40
Local and political media outlets report that the result of the French no-confidence vote is not expected to be known until 1900CET (1800BST) at the earliest.
- PM Bayrou in theory has an unlimited amount of time to deliver his general policy address at 1400BST/1500CET.
- Following this address, speakers from each parliamentary group (eleven in total) will provide remarks. Speaking times depend on the number of seats each group holds in the National Assembly. From Le Figaro:
- Ensenble Group: 35 mins
- RN, DR and MODEM (Bayrou's party): 15 mins
- Other groups (fewer than 35 deputies): 10 mins:
- Speaker for non-registered deputies: 5 mins
- Following these speeches, Bayrou will then be able to speak again before votes begin.
- Le Parisien highlights that "The debates surrounding his previous general policy statement, on January 14, lasted approximately five hours, without a vote"
