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BUNDS: The German 5s/30s is challenging the July high
Aug-19 07:13
- Worth keeping an eye on the German 5s/30s given that the 30yr part of the curve remains heavy.
- Overnight, the Japanese 20yr Auction drew some demand that was weaker than averages, and the Expected increase of Issuance next Year in Europe and caution from Investors on longer Dated debt demand seems to be weighing.
- The German 5s/30s is finding some resistance at the 103.00 handle, printed a 102.999 high.
- The July high stands at 130.215, which is also the steepest level since May 2019 (Prices are all according to Bloomberg).
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance LP).
STIR: Trend In SONIA Futures Remains Hawkish
Aug-19 07:10
SONIA futures are off yesterday’s session lows (currently little changed vs yesterday's settlement) but the trend remains biased in a hawkish direction. Today’s regional calendar is light, with focus on tomorrow’s July CPI report. MNI’s preview for that release will be out this morning.
- BOE-dated OIS briefly priced just ~5.5bps of easing through the November decision during yesterday afternoon’s broad-based UK rates selloff (i.e. just over a 20% implied probability of a 25bp cut).
- This morning, markets price ~6.5bps of cuts through November. The combination of long-end pressures, related fiscal uncertainty, a hawkish-leaning August BOE vote split and modestly resilient labour market report have all contributed to the recent repricing at the front-end.
- There are ~37bps of easing priced through the next 12 months.
| Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Sep-25 | 3.972 | 0.5 |
| Nov-25 | 3.901 | -6.6 |
| Dec-25 | 3.856 | -11.1 |
| Feb-26 | 3.760 | -20.7 |
| Apr-26 | 3.726 | -24.1 |
| Jun-26 | 3.662 | -30.5 |
| Jul-26 | 3.640 | -32.7 |
| Sep-26 | 3.606 | -36.1 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P |
GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl
Aug-19 07:08
This morning, Germany will hold a Bobl auction. On offer will be E4.5bln of the 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl.
- The size is in line with the last re-open of this issue on July 29.
- Recent auctions in the German Bobl segment haven't seen the strongest demand metrics, bid-to-covers stood at 1.49x / 1.53x over the last two times, while bid-to-offers came in at 1.12x / 1.16x. These compare to ranges of 1.23-2.52x / 0.95-1.91x seen over the year, respectively. Low prices have been above the secondary market mid-prices throughout 2025.
- Bobl positioning appeared long as of last week. See our Europe PI here.
- The next German auction will be next tomorrow's 30-year auction with E1bln of the 2.50% Aug-46 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102341) and E1.5bln of the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004) on offer.
- The 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl will be reopened next on September 16.
- Timing: Results will be available shortly after the bidding window closes at 10:30BST / 11:30CET.
