NORWAY: Sep Inflation: Soft Services Offset By Strong Goods/Food

• RES 4: 6617.73 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing  
• RES 1: 6541.75 High Sep 5  
• PRICE: 6538.75 @ 07:23 BST Sep 10
• SUP 1: 6462.58/6371.75 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2 
• SUP 2: 6365.35 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6 
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week, breaching the Aug 28 high of 6523.00. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6543.75 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 6456.35, the 20-day EMA. 

• RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $66.03/69.36 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.21 @ 07:19 BST Sep 10
• SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low. 

CPI-ATE inflation was 3.07% Y/Y in August, after 3.12% in July and 3.07% in June. Overall, we judge it to be a little stronger than expected by analysts and Norges Bank, but not alarmingly so. A portion of CPI-ATE strength came from the volatile airfares category.

• Despite Norges Bank noting at the August decision that “Child daycare prices were reduced from 1 August 2025 and will thus be lower than assumed in the June Report”, Statistics Norway suggests the policy did not have much impact on annual CPI-ATE inflation in August. From the press release: “Despite a large reduction in the maximum price for kindergartens from July to August, this does not significantly reduce the twelve-month growth in the CPI. This is because the maximum price was reduced by about the same amount this year as last year”.
• Excluding these prices from CPI-ATE, Stats Norway notes that inflation would have been 3.9% Y/Y. This underscores why Norges Bank remains cautious in its approach to easing monetary policy – underlying inflation is still quite strong.
• Overall, services excluding rent accelerated to 3.93% Y/Y (vs 3.80% prior). An uptick in airfares (8.34% Y/Y vs -0.18% prior) was an important contributor here. Other services components generally eased a little.
• Rents, which some analysts had expected to decelerate in August, ticked up to 3.83% Y/Y (vs 3.77% prior).
• Elsewhere, food inflation fell to 4.70% Y/Y (vs 5.57% prior), a dynamic that was in line with analyst expectations. This was offset a little by accelerations in non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverage inflation. 
• Domestic goods inflation eased to 4.33% Y/Y (vs 4.65% prior), while imported goods fell to 1.11% Y/Y (vs 1.58% prior).
• Headline CPI was 3.53% Y/Y, in line with expectations (vs 3.27% prior). As expected, electricity inflation accelerated in August on a base effect (29.41% Y/Y vs 12.98% prior).