EM CEEMEA CREDIT: SENEGL: Spreads have plateaued but remain elevated
Rep of Senegal (SENEGL; B3neg/Bneg/-)
Spreads have plateaued but remain elevated
• Senegal’s sovereign z-spreads seem to have plateaued but remain elevated following the recent newsflow. Based on our feeds, SENEGL 6.25 May33 charts @ z+705bp.
• Recently formed, opposition coalition Front for the Defense of Democracy and the Republic (aka FDR) has been increasingly vocal in its criticism of the government’s stance on the current state of political, economic and social issues in the country. As reported by the Agence de Presse Senegalaise, FDR posted a statement on March 13 highlighting such issues.
• Meanwhile, at the latest Council of Ministers on March 12, attention focused on the acceleration of the industrialization efforts and on value extraction from the exploitation of natural resources (petrochemicals and phosphates) and employment creation in sectors including agriculture and tourism, seen as key for the implementation of Vision Senegal 2050.
• The government remains in talks with the IMF following the findings of the recent official audit of public finances earlier in February, as per our previous notes.
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ITALY DATA: Italy IP Surprisingly Slides But Data Volatility Caveat
Italian December industrial production was weaker than expected falling 3.1% M/M swda (vs -0.2% consensus), after rising 0.3% in November. On a 3m/3m basis, industrial production deteriorated further to -1.1% from -0.7% in November.
- On the month, there were heavy declines across the main categories (consumer goods -3.3%, intermediate goods -3.6% and capital goods -3.3%) whilst energy bounced 1.0% - all on a SWDA basis.
- A reminder though that the underlying data are prone to particularly large swings, which display a heavy seasonal pattern but the magnitude of which can make adjustment difficult: actual NSA production fell -17% M/M compared to the -20% M/M in Dec 2023 whilst the working day adjusted only data saw -19% M/M after -14% M/M in Dec 2023.
- Industrial sentiment in Italy remains weak, with the manufacturing PMI in contractionary territory for 10 consecutive months (46.3 in January). The ISTAT manufacturing confidence series continues to remain below its 2000-2019 average at 86.8 in January (vs 91.0 average).
- 3m/3m production in consumer goods remains positive in December, whilst energy has returned to growth from a slight decline in November. Conversely, 3m/3m intermediate and capital goods production were negative and deteriorated further in December.
- Looking at manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers specifically fell 3.5% M/M, after rising 0.7% in November. The 3m/3m series has been negative since December 2023, and deteriorated further in December to -12.5% from -11.9% in November.
EURIBOR: EURIBOR FIX - 12/02/25
EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/Bloomberg.
- EUR001W 2.6580 -0.0030
- EUR001M 2.6160 0.0010
- EUR003M 2.5530 0.0140
- EUR006M 2.4860 0.0050
- EUR012M 2.3700 -0.0040
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Greece Auction Results: 3.625% Jun-35 GGB
| 3.625% Jun-35 GGB | Previous | |
| ISIN | GR0124041758 | |
| Amount | E250mln | |
| Avg yield | 3.24% | 3.637% |
| Bid-to-cover | 4.75x | |
| Avg Price | 103.370 | 99.913 |
| Pre-auction mid | 102.790 | |
| Previous date | 14-Jan-25 |
