EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Senegal: IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal

• Treasuries unwound early weakness - look to finish higher across the board Tuesday as risk sentiment cooled early in the first half with stocks rejecting new record highs.
• Stocks are holding weaker levels on narrow ranges after SPX and the Nasdaq indexes retreated from new record highs on Tuesday's open. No obvious block or headline driver as rates climbed to new session highs.
• Treasuries briefly extended highs after the Tsy $58B 3Y note auction (91282CPC9) stops through again: drawing 3.576% high yield vs. 3.584% WI; 2.66x bid-to-cover vs. 2.73x prior.
• Tsy Dec'25 10Y contract currently at 112-20 (+7.5) vs. 112-24 high, initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high. A break would be bullish. Curves mixed: 2s10s -.684 at 55.678, 5s30s +.662 at 101.848.
• U.S. government shutdown extended into a 7th day, and a lack of breakthrough by the end of this week will begin to prompt furloughed workers to miss pay checks, adding pressure to lawmakers to come to a resolution.
• Look ahead: September FOMC Minutes, Fed Speak, 10Y R/O.

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10 
• RES 3: 1.4071 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3985 200-dma
• PRICE: 1.3945 @ 16:46 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 1.3897/3834 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28  
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and last week’s clearance of the late  September’s high, reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3834, the 50-day EMA.    

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
• PRICE: 0.6591 @ 16:45 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26 
• SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6562. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.