PHILIPPINES: Senator Pimentel Moves To Convene Impeachment Court For VP's Trial
Jun-09 08:39
Almost 80% of Filipinos surveyed by OCTA Research said that Vice President Sara Duterte should face her impeachment trial in the Senate as its fate hangs in the balance, with very little time left until the adjournment of the 19th Congress. The Senate has come under growing pressure to start the trial imminently amid recent reports suggesting that Duterte's allies were plotting to nip it in the bud, circulating a draft resolution to that effect.
- Senate President Francis 'Chiz' Escudero said that the trial could start early if the upper house's plenary approves a motion to bring it forward today. The official has come under criticism for his alleged attempts to stall the procedure in a bid to keep his post in the next Congress.
- The reading of the articles of impeachment was postponed from June 2 until June 11, ostensibly to give the Senators more time to debate priority bills, but the move leaves only a narrow window to convene the impeachment court before the 19th Congress adjourns on June 14.
- On whether the impeachment court will actually convene this Wednesday, Chiz Escudero said that 'that's what’s on our schedule. That’s what we’re planning to do. But like I said, everything will go through a motion, everything will go through plenary action.'
- Local media reported that Senate Minority Leader Aquilino 'Koko' Pimentel has just formally moved to suspend the legislative calendar and convene the impeachment court tomorrow, citing pressure from academic institutions and civil society. The motion has been seconded by Senator Risa Hontiveros.
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MACRO OUTLOOK: US PPI/Retail Sales And Powell Follow On Thursday [2/2]
May-09 20:17
- Core PCE implications will then be watched closely in Thursday’s PPI report, and we expect with additional focus on portfolio management after last month’s huge upward revision to February.
- Retail sales, whilst only reported in nominal terms, will offer a keenly awaited look at consumer behavior.
- Real spending moderated to 1.8% annualized in Q1 after 4.0% in Q4 despite likely tariff front-running, with April a good test of how much discretionary spending was pulled forward.
- Finally, Powell provides “Opening Remarks” at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, although he’s allotted twenty minutes so there is scope for more substantive remarks than you’d usually expect. His message at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference was one firmly of being in no hurry to cut rates amidst huge uncertainty. He also appeared to put more weight on hard data over soft indicators that appear more stagflationary in nature.
MACRO OUTLOOK: US CPI Offers Look At April Tariff Distortions on Tuesday [1/2]
May-09 20:15
- The week’s US data calendar is highlighted by CPI inflation on Tuesday although PPI inflation and retail sales reports on Thursday are in close second. All three releases are going to be important, offering further hard data for April in the first month under reciprocal tariffs. What’s more, PPI and retail sales are followed by Fed Chair Powell just ten minutes after their release (more on that below).
- Core CPI inflation is seen accelerating to 0.3% M/M in April, with six unrounded estimates we’ve seen to date averaging 0.27% M/M.
- A potential for a ‘low’ 0.3% aside, it’s still likely a swift acceleration from a particularly soft 0.06% M/M in March which was in large part down to surprisingly abrupt declines in lodging away from home (-3.5%) and airfare (-5.3%) prices.
- This lodging weakness carried over to core PCE inflation back in March, at just 0.03% M/M after a particularly strong 0.50% M/M in February in a large wedge with core CPI at 0.23% M/M.
- Markets currently price a next Fed cut with the September FOMC meeting.
USDCAD TECHS: Pressuring Resistance
May-09 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4041 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3943 High May 9
- PRICE: 1.3930 @ 16:06 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 1.3751 Low May 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDCAD has recovered from its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4041, the 50-day EMA.
