POLAND: Sell-Side Analysts Say Oct CPI Outturn Leaves Door Open To Cut Next Week
Oct-31 09:42
Below we summarise snap reactions from a selection of local sell-side desks after a flash reading showed that inflation missed consensus and NBP forecasts in October, printing at +2.8% Y/Y versus +3.0% expected.
- ING note that food prices undershot expectations, while core inflation may have cooled to around +3.0% Y/Y. This leaves room for another interest-rate cut, which will likely be delivered next week.
- mBank write that 'food price momentum remains very low (0.0% M/M) and it seems that core inflation fell by a significant margin to +2.9-3.0% Y/Y, which boosts the odds of an interest-rate cut in November.
- Pekao see core inflation at +2.8-2.9% Y/Y versus +3.2% in the previous month, which would be the lowest level since June 2024.
- PKO write that food prices weighed on aggregate inflation, which was partially offset by fuels. They think that core inflation likely fell to around +3.0% Y/Y and the door to a rate cut next week is ajar.
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| Target | E500mln |
| Previous | E500mln |
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| ISIN | DE000BU2Z056 | |
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