Rallies in USDCAD have been firmly sold for the duration of the week, however strength into the Thursday close has yet to be fully pared. Nonetheless the onus remains lower for now. Early weakness Thursday keeps the medium-term trend pointed lower, and has resulted in a break of 1.3117, the Jun 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started on Oct 13 2022. The break lower opens 1.3084, and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points.
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
USDCAD traded sharply lower last week, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Support at 1.3262 has been cleared, the Feb 2 low. Price has also breached an important support at 1.3226, the Nov 15 2022 low. This strengthens the bearish condition and signals scope for a move towards 1.3154, the Sep 15 2022 low and 1.3139, the Sep 14 low of last year. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3375, the 20-day EMA.
JGBs continue to operate above support at 147.34, the May 26 low. The contract has breached 148.41, the May 12 high. This strengthens a bullish case and signals scope for a climb towards the next key resistance at 149.21/53, highs from May and March. Clearance of these levels would highlight an important break. To the downside, a breach of 147.34 would signal a stronger reversal and open 146.11, the Feb 22 low.
Bearish conditions in Aussie 10y futures remain intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent trend lows reinforce current conditions and note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode condition, highlighting the trend direction. The recent move lower opens the Dec 29 low of 95.875 for support. A break would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is at 96.440, the Jun 2 high.