USDCAD TECHS: Sell-On-Rallies Remains Dominant Theme
- RES 4: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3361 50-dma
- RES 2: 1.3304 High Jul 10
- RES 1: 1.3251 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3182 @ 16:26 BST Jul 20
- SUP 1: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
- SUP 2: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2949 2.00 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
Rallies in USDCAD have been firmly sold for the duration of the week, however strength into the Thursday close has yet to be fully pared. Nonetheless the onus remains lower for now. Early weakness Thursday keeps the medium-term trend pointed lower, and has resulted in a break of 1.3117, the Jun 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started on Oct 13 2022. The break lower opens 1.3084, and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable
- RES 4: 1.3585 High Jun 1
- RES 3: 1.3450 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3375 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3302/3355 Low Apr 14 / High Jun 15
- PRICE: 1.3225 @ 20:50 BST Jun 20
- SUP 1: 1.3175 Low Jun 19
- SUP 2: 1.3154 Low Sep 15 2022
- SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14 2022
- SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
USDCAD traded sharply lower last week, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Support at 1.3262 has been cleared, the Feb 2 low. Price has also breached an important support at 1.3226, the Nov 15 2022 low. This strengthens the bearish condition and signals scope for a move towards 1.3154, the Sep 15 2022 low and 1.3139, the Sep 14 low of last year. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3375, the 20-day EMA.
JGB TECHS: (M3) Is Through Resistance
- RES 3: 151.26 - High Mar 3 2022
- RES 2: 149.75/150.81 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 5 2022
- RES 1: 149.21/53 High May 12 / High Mar 22
- PRICE: 148.62 @ 20:27 BST Jun 20
- SUP 1: 147.34 - Low May 26
- SUP 2: 146.11 - Low Feb 22
- SUP 3: 144.15 - Low Jan 13
JGBs continue to operate above support at 147.34, the May 26 low. The contract has breached 148.41, the May 12 high. This strengthens a bullish case and signals scope for a climb towards the next key resistance at 149.21/53, highs from May and March. Clearance of these levels would highlight an important break. To the downside, a breach of 147.34 would signal a stronger reversal and open 146.11, the Feb 22 low.
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 3: 97.040 - High Aug 03 2022 (cont)
- RES 2: 96.780/975 - High May 5 / High MAr 14
- RES 1: 96.440 - High Jun 2
- PRICE: 96.050 @ 20:38 BST Jun 20
- SUP 1: 95.875 - Low Dec 29 2022
- SUP 2: 95.670 - Low Jun 17 2022
- SUP 3: 95.094 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Bearish conditions in Aussie 10y futures remain intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent trend lows reinforce current conditions and note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode condition, highlighting the trend direction. The recent move lower opens the Dec 29 low of 95.875 for support. A break would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is at 96.440, the Jun 2 high.
